ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Sustain. Food Syst.
Sec. Agricultural and Food Economics
Volume 9 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fsufs.2025.1630441
Mapping China's Triple Interlinkage: A Quantile Connectedness Analysis of Agricultural, Energy, and Policy Shocks
Provisionally accepted
- 1Qingdao Huanghai University, Qingdao, China
- 2West University of Timisoara, Timisoara, Romania
- 3Rizhao Polytechnic, Rizhao, China
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This study investigates spillovers among agricultural commodity future price (AFP), crude oil price (COP), and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) from China perspective, using quantile connectedness method. The empirical findings indicate that AFP, COP, and EPU exhibit significantly elevated volatility connectedness at extreme quantiles compared to median levels, revealing intensified cross-market contagion during economic uncertainty and tail events. Moreover, the dynamic characteristics of AFP, COP, and EPU are empirically validated, while historical crises are shown to amplify these spillover mechanisms substantially. The key innovation lies in integrating EPU within the COP-AFP analytical paradigm, where dynamic quantile shifts capture their interdependencies across market conditions, thereby expanding the theoretical scope. Thus, this research further provides policies, such as agricultural market monitoring mechanism and international economic cooperation, for multiple market participants.
Keywords: Agricultural commodity price, Crude oil price, economic policy uncertainty, Quantile connectedness, Quantile Spillover
Received: 17 May 2025; Accepted: 06 Oct 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Song, Wang, Liu and Moldovan. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Kai-Hua Wang, wangkaihua2013@163.com
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