ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Sustain. Food Syst.
Sec. Agricultural and Food Economics
Modeling the Fruit Production-GDP Nexus in Saudi Arabia: Evidence from Cointegration and Vector Error Correction Model Techniques
Provisionally accepted
- King Faisal University College of Agricultural and Food Sciences, Al Ahsa, Saudi Arabia
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This study investigates the cointegration relationship between GDP and fruit production in Saudi Arabia using annual time series data over 1970–2023. The analysis applies the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to explore long and short-run dynamics. The results confirm a long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables. Grapes and dates production exhibit significant interactions with GDP in the short and long term, while watermelon production shows mixed effects but potential for long-term contribution. Moreover, the error correction term (ECT) confirmed that short-term disequilibrium between GDP and fruit production is corrected over time. The GDP is self-driven but also influenced by grapes and dates production shocks. Forecasting performance was strongest for dates and watermelon production. The study recommends enhancing productivity through crop diversification, shifting to higher-value varieties, and improving market integration for dates production. Future research should incorporate variables such as climate change, trade policy, and input costs to further investigate the elasticity of watermelon production relative to GDP
Keywords: fruit production, GDP, Forecast error variance decomposition, Saudi Arabia, Impulse response functions
Received: 25 Jul 2025; Accepted: 27 Oct 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Elzaki, Al-Mahish and Rashed. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Raga M. Elzaki, rmali@kfu.edu.sa
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