A Study on the Impact of Rural Industrial Integration on Food Production: Empirical Evidence from 2,571 Counties in China

Hang Chen¹Miaomiao Liu¹Shuyang Xie¹Liupeng Chen^2*

• ¹Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, China
• ²South China University of Technology, Guangzhou, China

The integrated development of rural industries is a crucial strategy for ensuring food security and advancing agricultural modernization. Based on panel data from 2,571 counties across 26 provinces in China between 2013 and 2022, this study employs a difference-in-differences model to empirically examine the impact of rural industrial integration on grain production, using the designation of national rural industrial integration demonstration parks as a quasi-natural experiment. The results indicate that rural industrial integration significantly enhances grain output at the county level, with the demonstration park policy increasing average grain production in pilot counties by 5.81%. The policy effect is sustainable, though it exhibits a gradual weakening trend over time. Robustness tests confirm the reliability of these findings. Mechanism analyses reveal that technological progress in agriculture and the scaling of farmland operations serve as key pathways through which integration boosts grain production. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the effects are more pronounced in counties with higher fiscal expenditure and greater internet penetration. This study provides an empirical basis for optimizing rural industrial integration policies and suggests targeted measures such as strengthening demonstration zones, deepening technical and land reforms, and adapting policies to local conditions. Despite the focus on China, the findings offer valuable insights for other developing regions facing similar challenges of agricultural modernization and food security, though generalizability may be limited by contextual differences.