Are subarctic nations' fisheries benefiting from climate change?

Hreiðar Þór Valtýsson^1*Stefán Bjarni Gunnlaugsson¹Daði Már Kristófersson²

• ¹University of Akureyri, Akureyri, Iceland
• ²Haskoli Islands, Reykjavík, Iceland

Assessing performance of fisheries through value of catch arguably offers deeper insight than traditional volume-based measures, which overlook large price differences among species. This study applies a novel cod equivalents (codeqs) metric to evaluate changes in the relative value of northern fisheries over since 1950 and to explore whether these shifts correspond with ocean warming trends observed. The results show that while total catch volumes have declined since the 1970s, the aggregated relative value of catches has remained stable at around five million codeqs per year. At the national level, Greenland, Norway, Russia, United States, and the Faroe Islands have experienced increased catch values, largely due to expanded groundfish and shellfish fisheries, while Denmark, Iceland, and Sweden have seen declines. Changes were insignificant for Canada and Finland. Despite localized gains, particularly in the Barents Sea and around Greenland, the analysis provides little consistent evidence that warming oceans have produced overall economic benefits for northern fisheries. Instead, factors such as improved management, changing species composition, and market dynamics appear more influential than temperature trends in shaping the long-term value of Arctic and subarctic fisheries.