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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Sustain. Food Syst.

Sec. Water-Smart Food Production

Volume 9 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fsufs.2025.1709629

This article is part of the Research TopicOptimizing Deficit Irrigation for Sustainable Crop Production in Water-Scarce RegionsView all articles

Accurate Prediction of Wheat Yield under Combined Saline Water Irrigation and Arid Stress: A Comprehensive Analysis of the FAO-AquaCrop Model

Provisionally accepted
Leyla  SekhriLeyla Sekhri1Sabah  RaziSabah Razi1Samir  MerdaciSamir Merdaci2Fouad  SellemFouad Sellem3Yacine  DaiboucheYacine Daibouche4Anton  PoddubskyAnton Poddubsky5*Dmitry  E. KucherDmitry E. Kucher6Nazih  Yacer RebouhNazih Yacer Rebouh6*Mohamed  E. FadlMohamed E. Fadl7*
  • 1Universite Mohamed Khider Biskra, Biskra, Algeria
  • 2Universite d'El Oued, El Oued, Algeria
  • 3Ecole Nationale Superieure Agronomique, El Harrach, Algeria
  • 4Technical Institute for the Development of Saharan Agronomy, Biskra, Algeria
  • 5Faculty of Artificial Intelligence, RUDN University, Moscow, Russia
  • 6Department of Environmental Management, Institute of Environmental Engineering, RUDN University, Moscow, Russia
  • 7Division of Scientific Training and Continuous Studies, National Authority for Remote Sensing and Space Sciences, Cairo, Egypt

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

The AquaCrop model was calibrated and validated for durum wheat in the arid region of Biskra, Algeria. using field data from the CAZDA COSIDER farm during the 2022/2023 growing season. The wheat field was irrigated using a center pivot system with saline water at 4.45 dS m-1. Validation was performed with independent yield data from the Technical Institute for the Development of Saharan Agronomy (TIDSA) in Biskra region; to take into consideration the differences in weather conditions, soil, salinity levels and irrigation management. The calibration process involved adjusting only the non-conservative crop parameters. The model accurately simulated canopy cover (RMSE = 3.7%, NRMSE = 5.5%, EF = 0.99, R = 1) and above ground biomass (RMSE = 1.1 t ha⁻¹, NRMSE = 9.6 %, EF = 0.78, R = 0.95), with a slight underestimation of 0.25 t ha-1 in the final above-ground biomass. The model captured the temporal trends in soil water content, but with low quantitative accuracy (RMSE = 40.2 mm, NRMSE = 14.9 %, EF = -0.42, R = 0.94). Soil water content simulation showed adequate performance (RMSE = 40.2 mm, NRMSE = 14.9 % EF = -0.42, R = 0.94) capturing temporal patterns but with a tendency to underestimate values during the late growth stages. Validation confirmed very good predictive performance for grain yield (R² = 0.92, RMSE = 0.2 t ha-1, NRMSE = 2.76 %, EF = 0.9, d= 0.98). Overall, the results demonstrate that, with rigorous calibration using field measured data, the AquaCrop model can accurately predict durum wheat grain yield and final above ground biomass under the arid and saline conditions of the studied area. In contrast, the use of default parameters resulted in poor yield prediction performance, underscoring the critical need for site specific calibration. The locally calibrated AquaCrop model can effectively support water managers and decision-makers in optimizing irrigation scheduling and enhancing durum wheat yields under the challenging saline and arid conditions characteristic of the Biskra region. Serving as a robust decision support tool, the model enables the implementation of improved agricultural practices that ultimately benefit farmers and promote sustainable agriculture.

Keywords: AquaCrop, wheat yield, Calibration, Saline irrigation, crop model, Arid regions

Received: 20 Sep 2025; Accepted: 20 Oct 2025.

Copyright: © 2025 Sekhri, Razi, Merdaci, Sellem, Daibouche, Poddubsky, Kucher, Rebouh and Fadl. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

* Correspondence:
Anton Poddubsky, poddubskiy-aa@rudn.ru
Nazih Yacer Rebouh, n.yacer16@outlook.fr
Mohamed E. Fadl, madham@narss.sci.eg

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