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Original Research ARTICLE

Front. Earth Sci. | doi: 10.3389/feart.2020.568365

Impacts of Indian Ocean Dipole–like SST on Rice Yield Anomalies in Jiangsu Province Provisionally accepted The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon. Notify me

 Jingwei Xu1*,  Nikolay V. Koldunov2*, Min Xu3*, Xiuhua Zhu4, Klaus Fraedrich5, Xi Jiang1, Shoupeng Zhu1 and Xiefei Zhi1
  • 1Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, China
  • 2Center for Marine Environmental Sciences, University of Bremen, Germany
  • 3Jiangsu Provincial Meteorological Bureau, China
  • 4Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Hamburg, Germany
  • 5Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Max Planck Society (MPG), Germany

One of the main water vapor sources of eastern China is the Bay of Bengal, over which the circulation is influenced by the Tropical Indian Ocean Dipole (TIOD). The TIOD has a long-lasting effect on weather patterns, which in turn influence the rice yield and quality in eastern China, such as in Jiangsu Province. To identify the main mechanism involved, we perform a detailed investigation of the connections between the TIOD-like SST and the climatic suitability for growing rice, and the subsequent rice yield anomalies, in Jiangsu Province. In particular, we compare the relationships, and identify the underlying mechanisms, of TIOD SST with suitable sunshine duration, temperature and precipitation during the period of rice culture in the province. SVD (Singular Value Decomposition) results show that the TIOD-like SST has a close correlation with the rice yield anomalies, with a temporal correlation coefficient of 0.43 for 53 years, passing the 99% significance level. Furthermore, in the negative TIOD-like SST years, the background circulation weakens the transport effect of the atmospheric river through which water vapor is transported from the Bay of Bengal to eastern China. This decreased amount of transported water vapor decreases the precipitation and total cloud cover in the province. In turn, this significantly increases the sunshine duration, which plays a key role in rice yield anomalies. The increased sunshine duration and higher temperatures lead to positive rice yield anomalies, and vice versa. Our findings highlight that climatic factors, such as TIOD-like SST, have a far-reaching influence on agricultural production (in this case, rice yield), and thus special attention should be paid to interdisciplinary research in the fields of climate and agriculture.

Keywords: rice yield anomalies, Climatic suitability, East Asian summer monsoon, Jiangsu, Indian Ocean Dipole, SST (sea surface temperature)

Received: 01 Jun 2020; Accepted: 10 Dec 2020.

Copyright: © 2020 Xu, Koldunov, Xu, Zhu, Fraedrich, Jiang, Zhu and Zhi. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

* Correspondence:
Dr. Jingwei Xu, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China,
Dr. Nikolay V. Koldunov, Center for Marine Environmental Sciences, University of Bremen, Bremen, 28359, Bremen, Germany,
Ms. Min Xu, Jiangsu Provincial Meteorological Bureau, Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, China,