%A Xu,Honglv
%A Zhang,Yi
%A Yuan,Min
%A Ma,Liya
%A Liu,Meng
%A Gan,Hong
%A Liu,Wenwen
%A Lum,Gillian Gianna Anne
%A Tao,Fangbiao
%D 2021
%J Frontiers in Public Health
%C
%F
%G English
%K 2019 novel coronavirus disease,Basic Reproduction Number,Latent categories,Trends,Epidemiology 3
%Q
%R 10.3389/fpubh.2021.575315
%W
%L
%M
%P
%7
%8 2021-September-14
%9 Original Research
%#
%! Changes of R0 of COVID-19 in China
%*
%<
%T Basic Reproduction Number of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease in the Major Endemic Areas of China: A Latent Profile Analysis
%U https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2021.575315
%V 9
%0 JOURNAL ARTICLE
%@ 2296-2565
%X Objective: The aim of this study is to analyze the latent class of basic reproduction number (R0) trends of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in the major endemic areas of China.Methods: The provinces that reported more than 500 cases of COVID-19 till February 18, 2020 were selected as the major endemic areas. The Verhulst model was used to fit the growth rate of cumulative confirmed cases. The R0 of COVID-19 was calculated using the parameters of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and COVID-19. The latent class of R0 was analyzed using the latent profile analysis (LPA) model.Results: The median R0 calculated from the SARS and COVID-19 parameters were 1.84–3.18 and 1.74–2.91, respectively. The R0 calculated from the SARS parameters was greater than that calculated from the COVID-19 parameters (Z = −4.782 to −4.623, p < 0.01). Both R0 can be divided into three latent classes. The initial value of R0 in class 1 (Shandong Province, Sichuan Province, and Chongqing Municipality) was relatively low and decreased slowly. The initial value of R0 in class 2 (Anhui Province, Hunan Province, Jiangxi Province, Henan Province, Zhejiang Province, Guangdong Province, and Jiangsu Province) was relatively high and decreased rapidly. Moreover, the initial R0 value of class 3 (Hubei Province) was in the range between that of classes 1 and 2, but the higher R0 level lasted longer and decreased slowly.Conclusion: The results indicated that the overall R0 trend is decreased with the strengthening of comprehensive prevention and control measures of China for COVID-19, however, there are regional differences.