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Original Research ARTICLE Provisionally accepted The full-text will be published soon. Notify me

Front. Sustain. Food Syst. | doi: 10.3389/fsufs.2019.00091

Global simulation of insect meat production under climate change

  • 1University of Hyogo, Japan

The world’s population could exceed nine billion by 2050, putting future global food security at risk. To fulfill the increased food demand, food production should be increased. However, with limited land use, current livestock production is not sustainable. To tackle this problem, insect meat can be used as an alternative to conventional livestock. With its high nutritional component and a low land use area, insect has many potentials. However, it is largely unknown how much land can be saved if we replace current conventional livestock with insects, especially under different climate change scenarios. Here, we examine the land use effectiveness of raising insects as food, together with using other conventional meat sources under different climate scenarios outlined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (A1, A2, B1, B2). Then, the current livestock meat ratio is analyzed to examine the readiness of each country to fulfill its needs. We also simulated land use changes with different proportions of insect meat production. Based on the land use simulation in different SRES scenarios, insect meat would be effective in fulfilling animal-based energy demands. We statistically examined the relationship of livestock land ratio with countries’ variables (GDP, population, forest area, protected area, government efficiency). Based on an analysis involving the use of various meat composition policies in the four SRES scenarios, insect meat with its high efficiency of land use can be more effective in fulfilling animal-based energy demands than other livestock types. However, to achieve food security in the future, it is a necessity that insect meat be used alongside other alternative solutions that are suitable to each country/area.

Keywords: Food security, Livestock, global analysis., Climate change scenarios, energy demand land area

Received: 24 Jan 2019; Accepted: 30 Sep 2019.

Copyright: © 2019 Doi and Mulia. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

* Correspondence: Dr. Hideyuki Doi, University of Hyogo, Kobe, 651-2197, Hyōgo, Japan, hideyuki.doi@icloud.com