ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Earth Sci.

Sec. Solid Earth Geophysics

Volume 13 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/feart.2025.1587650

This article is part of the Research TopicWhen The Earth Records CyclesView all articles

On a planetary forcing of global seismicity

Provisionally accepted
Stéphanie DumontStéphanie Dumont1*Jean de Bremond d'ArsJean de Bremond d'Ars2Jean-Baptiste BouléJean-Baptiste Boulé3,4Vincent CourtillotVincent Courtillot5Marc GèzeMarc Gèze3Dominique GIBERTDominique GIBERT6,7Vladimir G KossobokovVladimir G Kossobokov8,9Jean-Louis Le MouëlJean-Louis Le Mouël5Fernando LopesFernando Lopes3,4Maria C. NevesMaria C. Neves10Graça SilveiraGraça Silveira1,11Simona PetrosinoSimona Petrosino12Pierpaolo ZuddasPierpaolo Zuddas13
  • 1Instituto Dom Luiz, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade da Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
  • 2UMR6118 Geosciences Rennes, Rennes, Brittany, France
  • 3Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle, Paris, France
  • 4INSERM U1154 Structure et Instabilité des Génomes, Paris, Île-de-France, France
  • 5Académie des sciences, Institut De France, Paris, France
  • 6UMR5276 Laboratoire de géologie de Lyon Terre, planètes et environnement (LGL-TPE), Villeurbanne, Rhône-Alpes, France
  • 7École Normale Supérieure de Lyon, Université de Lyon, Lyon, Rhône-Alpes, France
  • 8Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics (RAS), Moscow, Moscow Oblast, Russia
  • 9Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS), Moscow, Moscow Oblast, Russia
  • 10Faculty of Sciences and Technology, University of Algarve, Faro, Portugal
  • 11Lisbon Higher Institute of Engineering (ISEL), Lisboa, Portugal
  • 12Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Napoli —Osservatorio Vesuviano,, Napoli, Italy
  • 13Sorbonne Université(CNRS), Paris, France

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We have explored the temporal variability of the seismicity at global scale over the last 124 years, as well as its potential drivers. To achieve this, we constructed and analyzed an averaged global seismicity curve for earthquakes of magnitude equal or greater than 6 since 1900. Using Singular Spectrum Analysis, we decomposed this curve and compared the extracted pseudo-cycles with two global geophysical parameters associated with Earth's tides: length-of-day variations and sea-level changes. Our results reveal that these three geophysical signal curves can be reconstructed up to ~90% by the sum of up to seven periodic components ranging from 1 to ~60 years, largely aligned with planetary ephemerides. We discuss these results in the framework of Laplace's theory, with a † Marc Gèze passed away before the finalization of this manuscript. We dedicate this work to his memory. particular focus on the phase relationships between seismicity, length-of-day variations, and sealevel changes to further elucidate the underlying physical mechanisms. Finally, integrating observations from seismogenic regions, we propose a possible trigger mechanism based on solid Earth-hydrosphere interactions, emphasizing the key role of water-rock interactions in modulating earthquake occurrence.

Keywords: Worldwide seismicity, Sea-level variations, Length of day, Periodic behavior, waterrock interactions, Global-scale analysis, time-series analysis

Received: 04 Mar 2025; Accepted: 30 May 2025.

Copyright: © 2025 Dumont, de Bremond d'Ars, Boulé, Courtillot, Gèze, GIBERT, Kossobokov, Le Mouël, Lopes, Neves, Silveira, Petrosino and Zuddas. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

* Correspondence: Stéphanie Dumont, Instituto Dom Luiz, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade da Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal

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