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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Earth Sci.

Sec. Geohazards and Georisks

Volume 13 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/feart.2025.1632282

Assessing probabilistic hazard and risk for building, road network, and ecosystems: the case study of La Florida municipality, Galeras Volcano, Colombia

Provisionally accepted
Gustavo Adolfo CórdobaGustavo Adolfo Córdoba1Antonio CostaAntonio Costa2*DIANA RODRIGUEZDIANA RODRIGUEZ1Jean-Claude ThouretJean-Claude Thouret3Ruby Alicia CriolloRuby Alicia Criollo1Diana Alejandra GuerreroDiana Alejandra Guerrero4
  • 1University of Nariño, San Juan de Pasto, Colombia
  • 2Sezione di Roma 1, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Rome, Lazio, Italy
  • 3UMR6524 Laboratoire Magmas et Volcans (LMV), Clermont-Ferrand, Auvergne, France
  • 4Spanish National Research Council (CSIC), Madrid, Madrid, Spain

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We present a quantitative methodology for assessing volcanic risk to buildings, road network, ecosystems, and infrastructure. To achieve this, we apply a Volcanic Risk Metric (VRM) designed to provide a scientific and systematic framework for risk quantification and decisionmaking. Following the directives of the National Guide for Risk Analysis under the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, we demonstrate the application of this methodology to La Florida Municipality, Colombia, part of which lies within the high-hazard zone of Galeras Volcano.Risk assessment is carried out by combining probabilistic hazard curves, generated for each pixel of a digital elevation model, with vulnerability curves tailored to different exposed elements. For each hazard and asset, a specific risk curve is calculated and multiplied by the asset's cost to estimate expected physical loss. By identifying the highest risk value among the various hazards at each pixel, we create an integrated risk map of the study area. This map provides valuable information for planning, mitigation, and emergency response efforts. The

Keywords: volcanic hazards, Vulnerability, environment, land use planning, Physical risk

Received: 20 May 2025; Accepted: 24 Jul 2025.

Copyright: © 2025 Córdoba, Costa, RODRIGUEZ, Thouret, Criollo and Guerrero. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

* Correspondence: Antonio Costa, Sezione di Roma 1, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Rome, 00143, Lazio, Italy

Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.

Supplementary Material