ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Earth Sci.
Sec. Geohazards and Georisks
Volume 13 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/feart.2025.1664477
This article is part of the Research TopicPrevention, Mitigation, and Relief of Compound and Chained Natural Hazards, volume IIIView all articles
An Evaluation Model for the Dissemination of Earthquake Emergency Information and Decision-Making Based on User Demand
Provisionally accepted
- Sichuan Earthquake Administration, Chengdu, China
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To reduce the risks associated with earthquake relief decision-making and improve the efficiency of earthquake information services, this paper proposes a seismic emergency decision-making utility evaluation process and emergency information utility evaluation method based on the perception of user demand, starting from user needs. An evaluation model is constructed based on user preferences, information volume, and decision effectiveness. To enhance interpretability and model transparency, a bivariate quadratic polynomial function was adopted. This article explores the quantification of earthquake emergency information utility and the decision-making utility evaluation process. Based on decision-making scenarios involving the responses of emergency command institutions during domestic medium-to-strong earthquakes, this study investigates the diverse needs of earthquake relief command users for existing earthquake emergency information products. It establishes a user preference model using Bayesian methods, introduces information entropy into it, and constructs a quadratic polynomial function linking demand probability, information quantity, and utility to quantify the decision-making utility of information products. Based on the threshold, effective information products were selected. Finally, the reliability was tested, and the results showed that the correlation coefficient (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), and bias of the modeling set were 0.8955, 0.6492, and 0.0033, respectively. In addition, a 5-fold cross-validation was conducted to confirm the model's robustness and stability across different data partitions. The 6.0-magnitude earthquake that occurred in Luxian County, Sichuan Province, in 2021 was used as an example to test the feasibility of the evaluation process, demonstrating the rationality and effectiveness of the model. This method provides a new approach for evaluating information utility in a set scenario, which is beneficial for improving the decision-making ability of earthquake resistance and disaster-relief management, and effectively reducing the losses caused by earthquakes.
Keywords: Earthquake Emergency Information, User demand perception, Utility evaluation model, decision-making, Effective information products, Earthquake disaster relief
Received: 12 Jul 2025; Accepted: 11 Aug 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Zhang, Zhou, Zhou, Zheng, Tang and Yan. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Yan Zhou, Sichuan Earthquake Administration, Chengdu, China
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