Integrating PLUS and InVEST Model to Project Carbon Dynamics in China's Yellow River Basin under Multi-Scenarios (1980-2100)

Zhongbing Chang¹Jiaming Wang^2*Xin Xiong³Jun Jiang⁴Jianping Wu⁵Songjia Chen⁴Jie Li⁴Shuo Zhang⁶Guangxing Ji⁷Baowei Qian^7*

• ¹Surveying and Mapping Institute Lands and Resource Department of Guangdong Province, Guangzhou, China
• ²College of Water Resource and Modern Agriculture, Nanyang Normal University, Nanyang, China
• ³Jiangxi Province and Chinese Academy of Sciences Lushan Botanical Garden, Jiujiang, China
• ⁴Chinese Academy of Sciences South China Botanical Garden, Guangzhou, China
• ⁵Guangzhou Institute of Geography Guangdong Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China
• ⁶Forestry Policy Research Office of Zhaoqing High level Talent Training and Development Center, Municipal Bureau of Forestry, Zhaoqing, China
• ⁷College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou, China

Predicting future land-use patterns and carbon storage is essential for understanding regional terrestrial ecosystems, as regional land-use change plays a crucial role in ecosystem carbon storage variations. Using the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation Model (PLUS), we simulated the 2020 land-use types in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) based on the 2010 data. Subsequently, we predicted YRB land-use types for 2030 to 2100. Finally, based on these simulated land-use patterns, we calculated the carbon storage in the YRB from 1980 to 2100 using the InVEST model. The results showed that: (1) From 1980 to 2020, the InVEST model showed that carbon storage in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) exhibited an increasing trend of 12.10%. Rapid carbon storage increases can be observed in 2000-2020 (16.9 million tons). The largest carbon storage was found in Grassland (2487.24 million tons), which accounts for 51.03% of the total carbon storage in YRB. (2) During 2030 to 2100, the grassland area showed a decrease trend in SSP1-2.6 (-12.22%). The forest area showed an increase trend in SSP1-2.6 (3.49%). (3) Among the different scenarios, SSP1-2.6 (103.99 million tons) and current scenarios (23.07 million tons) showed the largest carbon storage gains from 2030 to 2100, primarily attributed to the cultivated land and forest, despite a major loss from grassland. SSP2-4.5 showed a carbon storage loss of 23.48 million tons, while a slight gain of 6.49 million tons was observed under SSP5-8.5. (4) Carbon storage losses were primarily observed in the grassland-dominated northern regions of the YRB. In contrast, the southernmost and eastern regions showed an increasing trend. This research provides essential scientific support for optimizing land-use structure and enhancing land management strategies across the YRB basin.