ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Earth Sci.
Sec. Geohazards and Georisks
This article is part of the Research TopicNatural Disaster Prediction Based on Experimental and Numerical MethodsView all 30 articles
Seismic Hazard Analysis of Tailings Ponds in Honghe Prefecture Based on Information Quantity Model and Analytic Hierarchy Process
Provisionally accepted
- Yunnan Earthquake Agency, Kunming, China
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Honghe Prefecture in Yunnan Province is rich in mineral resources, with a large number of tailings ponds distributed extensively. Located in the southern segment of the Xiaojiang fault zone, it has complex geological structures and frequent seismic activities, making it one of the high seismic risk areas in China. Under seismic action, tailings ponds may trigger secondary disasters such as dam failure and tailings leakage, posing severe threats to the environment and socio-economy. This study identifies the spatial distribution characteristics and disaster-causing mechanisms of tailings ponds by analyzing seismic hazard factors, and constructs a hazard assessment model using GIS spatial analysis, information quantity model, and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to generate a seismic hazard zoning map of tailings ponds. Twelve evaluation indicators for seismic geological hazards and eight factors for tailings pond seismic hazards are selected. By integrating multi-source data, quantifying the correlation between each indicator and disasters, and determining factor weights, a comprehensive evaluation model is formed. Based on the results, prevention and control strategies such as dam reinforcement and monitoring early warning are proposed. The results show that tailings ponds with low hazard are mostly distributed in geologically stable areas, while those with medium to high hazard are concentrated in eastern Gejiu City, southern Jianshui County, and southern Mile City, significantly affected by factors such as fault zone activities. The research results not only provide a scientific basis for the safety management of tailings ponds but also offer technical support for seismic resistance management and disaster prevention in other earthquake-prone areas.
Keywords: seismic hazard, Tailings pond, GIS, Information quantity model, AnalyticHierarchy Process (AHP)
Received: 04 Sep 2025; Accepted: 06 Nov 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Li, Cao, Huang, Xu, Luo and LI. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Yanbo Cao, jingliuxh@gmail.com
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