ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Ecol. Evol.
Sec. Biogeography and Macroecology
Spatiotemporal dynamics and driving factors of drought in the Yellow River Basin (Henan): insights from TVDI analysis
Provisionally accepted
- 1School of Geographic Sciences, Xinyang Normal University, Xinyang, China
- 2Xinyang Vocational and Technical College, Xinyang, China
- 3Zhengzhou Lishui Foreign Language School, Zhengzhou, China
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Located in central China, the Yellow River Basin (Henan section) is a vital grain-producing region with extensive farmland. Its strategic central location also means its economic development is crucial for the stable growth of both Henan Province and the national economy. Nevertheless, persistent drought has long presented significant challenges to the region's agriculture, ecology, and economic development. Based on TVDI (Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index) data from 2003 to 2022, this study investigated historical drought dynamics through Theil–Sen Median and Mann–Kendall trend analyses. Future drought tendencies were assessed using R/S analysis. Spatiotemporal influencing factors were further examined using Geographic Detector. Research results indicated that most areas of the region were experiencing drought conditions. From 2003 to 2022, drought intensified in the northeastern counties of Yuanyang, Fengqiu, Changyuan, Puyang, Fanxian, and Taiqian within the Yellow River Basin (Henan section), while drought conditions eased in the southwestern counties of Lingbao, Lushi, Luoning, Shanzhou District, and Jiyuan. Future trends in drought variation indicated that the southwestern part of the region showed potential for improvement in drought conditions, while drought conditions in the western areas were likely to worsen. The primary factors influencing the spatiotemporal variation of drought in this region were evapotranspiration, temperature, and rainfall. This study aimed to provide an in-depth analysis of the drought situation in the Yellow River Basin (Henan section), offering a reference to assist stakeholders in implementing timely drought mitigation measures, thereby reducing the impact of drought on agricultural production and the ecological environment.
Keywords: drought, Geographical detector, Hurst exponent, TVDI (Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index), Yellow River Basin (Henan section)
Received: 09 Dec 2025; Accepted: 09 Feb 2026.
Copyright: © 2026 Gu, Xu, Feng, Li, Ji and Reheman. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Zhijia Gu
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