ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Ecol. Evol.
Sec. Conservation and Restoration Ecology
Multi-Scenario land use simulation and habitat quality changes in the Huangshui River Basin based on the PLUS–InVEST model
Fucun Zhang 1,2
Yongwang Sun 2,3
Jiaru Liu 2
Chao Ding 1,4
Yinggang Luo 1
Xue Min 1
Jiale Wang 5
Yuze Sun 5
1. College of Geographic Sciences, Qinghai Normal University, Xining, China
2. School of Engineering, Qinghai Institute of Technology, Xining, China
3. National Engineering Research Center of Geographic imformation System, China Univerity of Geosciences, Wuhan, China
4. Xining Party Institue of CPC, Xining, China
5. School of Geological Engineering, Qinghai University, Xining, China
Select one of your emails
You have multiple emails registered with Frontiers:
Notify me on publication
Please enter your email address:
If you already have an account, please login
You don't have a Frontiers account ? You can register here
Abstract
Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics and drivers of habitat quality in the Huangshui River Basin is crucial for ecological conservation and restoration efforts in the cold and arid regions of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Methods: Utilizing land-use change data spanning from 2000 to 2020, we integrated the PLUS– InVEST model with the Geodetector method to quantify the trajectories of habitat quality and identify the key driving factors under four distinct scenarios: The Natural Development Scenario (NDS), Economic Development Scenario (EDS), Cultivated land Protection Scenario (CPS), and Ecological Protection Scenario (EPS). Results: Our findings reveal the following: (1) Grassland remained the predominant land-use type from 2000 to 2020, with an average habitat quality index of 0.65. While overall habitat quality remained relatively high, a slight decline was observed, exhibiting a spatial gradient with lower values in the central basin and higher values toward the periphery. (2) By 2035, both NDS and EDS are projected to result in significant habitat fragmentation, primarily driven by the expansion of construction land, while CPS and EPS are expected to enhance habitat quality through the preservation of cultivated and ecological lands. (3) Land-use type emerged as the most influential factor driving spatial heterogeneity in habitat quality, with the interaction between land-use and temperature demonstrating the highest explanatory power. Discussion: These results provide robust projections of future land-use patterns and their impacts on habitat quality in the Huangshui River Basin, offering a scientific foundation for sustainable basin management and ecological protection.
Summary
Keywords
Geodetector, habitat quality, Huangshui RiverBasin, InVEST model, land use, Plus model
Received
07 January 2026
Accepted
19 February 2026
Copyright
© 2026 Zhang, Sun, Liu, Ding, Luo, Min, Wang and Sun. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
*Correspondence: Yuze Sun
Disclaimer
All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.