Empowering or disempowering? How demographics shape motivational climates and gender equity in Portuguese physical education

Physical education (PE) environments profoundly influence adolescents’ engagement and well-being, yet understanding of how demographic factors shape students’ perceptions of motivational climates remains limited. This cross-sectional study examined 1,166 Portuguese adolescents (M age = 15.2 years) across 12 schools to investigate how gender, extracurricular sports engagement, academic retention, and nationality moderate students’ perceptions of empowering (mastery-focused) versus disempowering (performance-focused) climates in PE. Using the validated Learning and Performance Orientation in Physical Education Classes Questionnaire (LAPOPECQ) and Bayesian analysis, we identified three key findings: (1) Gender equity gaps: Female students perceived performance-oriented climates (both from teachers and peers) as discernably less motivating than male students, suggesting that competitive PE environments may disproportionately alienate female participants. (2) Extracurricular buffering effect: Students engaged in extracurricular sports showed greater tolerance for peer-driven performance climates, possibly through habituation to competitive norms and/or genuine skill develepment. (3) Contextual uniformity: Nationality and academic retention showed negligible influence on climate perceptions, highlighting that climate perceptions are relatively stable across diverse demographic contexts within Portuguese PE settings. By integrating Achievement Goal Theory with demographic heterogeneity, this study advances understanding of how to design equitable PE environments. Practical implications include: (a) prioritizing mastery-oriented climates specifically for female students through targeted pedagogical adjustments; and (b) leveraging quality extracurricular engagement to reframe performance norms constructively rather than as threats. These findings bridge demographic diversity with inclusive pedagogy, offering actionable pathways for educators to foster empowering PE experiences across student populations.

Introduction

Physical education (PE) has undergone significant transformation in recent years, moving toward models that prioritize holistic student development—encompassing physical competence, emotional wellbeing, and inclusive engagement (Makrooni et al., 2025). Motivational climate - defined as the achievement-related goals and values emphasised by teachers and peers in PE settings (Ames and Archer, 1988; Duda, 2013)—is central to this shift and profoundly shapes students’ learning experiences, self-perceptions, and sustained engagement with physical activity. Extensive research grounded in Achievement Goal Theory (AGT) has documented how mastery-oriented (learning-focused) climates foster intrinsic motivation, persistence, and inclusive participation, whilst performance-oriented (normatively competitive) climates may inadvertently alienate students (Braithwaite et al., 2011; Cheon et al., 2019; Rodrigues et al., 2020; Smith et al., 2016). Duda’s (2013) distinction between empowering climates (effort, growth, psychological safety) and disempowering climates (rigid ability hierarchies, anxiety) highlights that motivational climate design is fundamentally an equity issue.

Recent empirical evidence confirms this equity imperative. For instance, gender differences in climate perceptions remain consistently documented, with female students demonstrating discernably lower valuations of performance-oriented climates compared to male peers—a pattern suggestive of gender-differentiated responses to competitive environments (Melguizo-Ibáñez et al., 2022; Moreno-Murcia et al., 2011). However, despite these advances, critical research gaps persist in understanding how demographic heterogeneity—including gender, extracurricular sports engagement, academic retention, and cultural/national background—jointly modifies students’ perceptions of teacher- and peer-created motivational climates.

This gap is particularly consequential in the Portuguese educational context. Portuguese research (Cid et al., 2019; Rodrigues et al., 2020) has documented overall climate perceptions but has not examined whether demographic factors create subpopulations with divergent climate experiences. Whilst research demonstrates that extracurricular sports participation influences students’ motivational orientations (Escamilla-Fajardo et al., 2019), no study has yet examined whether such participation moderates of perceived PE climate—potentially “buffering” students against disempowering climates or, conversely, habituating them to competitive norms. Similarly, academic retention—which reflects institutional positioning and student struggle—may carry implicit messages about ability and worthiness that reshape how students interpret PE environments. Finally, whilst cultural diversity is increasingly recognized as fundamental to inclusive pedagogy (Banks, 2016; Thorjussen and Sisjord, 2018), no empirical investigation has tested whether students of different national backgrounds perceive Portuguese PE climates uniformly or divergently.

Theoretical framework

Achievement Goal Theory (AGT) provides the primary theoretical lens, positing that motivational climates operate along two dimensions: mastery-oriented (emphasizing skill development, effort, self-improvement) and performance-oriented (emphasising normative comparisons, relative ability hierarchies) (Ames and Archer, 1988; Duda, 2013). Duda’s (2013) framework explicitly links climate design to equity and inclusivity—a crucial extension for understanding demographic heterogeneity. Importantly, AGT also postulates that perceived climates do not affect all students uniformly; rather, environmental influences interact with dispositional factors (e.g., task- or ego-oriented temperament) and contextual moderators [e.g., prior competitive experience via extracurricular sports to shape motivation and behaviour (Duda, 2013)].

To address these gaps, the present study examined how demographic variables (gender, extracurricular sports engagement, academic retention history, and nationality) moderate Portuguese adolescents’ perceptions of empowering versus disempowering motivational climates in PE, as assessed through teacher- and peer-created dimensions. By employing robust Bayesian statistical inference—appropriate for this research context due to its capacity to quantify evidence for null hypotheses (van Doorn et al., 2020; van Doorn et al., 2021)—we can provide nuanced insights into which demographic factors meaningfully predict climate perceptions and which show negligible effects, thereby advancing AGT’s account of demographic heterogeneity in educational settings. This approach is particularly valuable for educational practice, as evidence for null effects (e.g., nationality showing no effect) is as actionable as evidence for effects; it suggests that universal, non-differentiated climate designs may be appropriate in some contexts but not others.

Research questions

This investigation was guided by four research questions:

1. Does gender moderate students’ perceptions of performance-oriented PE climates? (Hypothesis: Female students will perceive disempowering climates as less motivating than males)

2. Does extracurricular sports engagement moderate climate perceptions? (Hypothesis: Students with competitive experience will show higher tolerance for peer performance climates)

3. Does academic retention history influence climate perceptions? (Exploratory; limited prior theory)

4. Does nationality shape climate perceptions? (Exploratory; cultural homogeneity within Portuguese context possible)

Addressing these questions through rigorous Bayesian hypothesis testing will provide educators and policymakers with evidence-based guidance for designing equitable, demographically-responsive PE interventions that foster empowering climates across diverse student populations.

Methods

Research design

This cross-sectional quantitative study examined motivational climate perceptions among Portuguese adolescents. The research received ethical approval from University of Maia Research Ethics Commission (Protocol 108/2023) and adhered to the Helsinki Declaration and Portuguese data protection regulations (Lei da Proteção de Dados Pessoais, Lei 58/2019). All procedures were approved prior to data collection; no amendments were made during the study. Following institutional approval, school administrators and PE teachers were briefed on study objectives, procedures, and data security protocols. Written informed consent was obtained from participants aged 18 years and older; with parental/guardian consent obtained for participants under 18 years: and student assent obtained through verbal confirmation and survey completion. Participation was entirely voluntary, with no incentives provided; all participants were assured of the right to withdraw without penalty. Data confidentiality was maintained through anonymised data collection and secure storage.

Participants and sampling procedures

The study sample comprised 1,166 adolescent participants from 43 PE classes across 12 schools in northwestern Portugal. Schools were selected purposively to represent diverse urban and semi-urban contexts; selection criteria included geographic representation, institutional size variation (from 400 to 1,200 students), and administrative availability. No restrictions were placed on PE curriculum content or teaching methodology, permitting observation of naturalistic, varied climate contexts. Originally, 1,199 students were recruited (553 female, 613 male, 10 non-binary, 23 undisclosed); however, 33 participants with non-binary or undisclosed gender were excluded from gender-stratified analyses due to insufficient subgroup size (n < 50) for robust statistical comparisons, resulting in the final analytic sample of N = 1,166. This decision prioritizes statistical power; however, we acknowledge this as a significant limitation from an equity perspective (see Limitations section). We strongly recommend that future research oversample gender-diverse youth to enable intersectional analysis.

Participants ranged in age from 10 to 20 years (M = 15.2, SD = 1.9) and were enrolled in biweekly PE classes per the Portuguese national curriculum (45-min classes). Data were collected across the academic year (January–May 2024). Participation rates were 87% (1,199 of 1,378 students approached); students who declined or were absent during data collection (n = 179) were not included. No systematic patterns in decline rates were observed across schools or grade levels.

Data collection procedures

Students completed an online questionnaire (Microsoft Forms) administered during their regularly scheduled PE class under the supervision of their PE teacher. Teachers received written protocols specifying that they should (1) provide clear instructions without interpreting items, (2) assure students of response confidentiality, and (3) not view individual responses. Completion was not monitored by teachers to minimise response bias. The survey required approximately 8 min to complete. Missing data were minimal (<2% across all items); missing values were handled using listwise deletion for person-level analyses, consistent with our sample size sufficient for this approach.

Instruments

Learning and performance-orientation in physical education classes questionnaire (LAPOPECQ)

Participants completed the Portuguese-validated version of the Learning and Performance-Orientation in Physical Education Classes Questionnaire (Papaioannou, 1994, 1998); Portuguese translation: (Rodrigues et al., 2020). The LAPOPECQ is a 22-item instrument grounded in Achievement Goal Theory, assessing students’ perceptions of motivational climates created by both teachers and peers across four dimensions:

Learning-oriented climate by peers (LCS): 5 items (α = 0.73). Example: “During physical education, students feel good when others learn something new.”

Performance-oriented climate by peers (PCS): 5 items (α = 0.76). Example: “During physical education, students try to gain rewards by outperforming others.”

Learning-oriented climate by PE teacher (LCT): 6 items (α = 0.81). Example: “During physical education, the teacher looks most satisfied when every student learns something new.”

Performance-oriented climate by PE teacher (PCT): 6 items (α = 0.84). Example: “During physical education, the teacher looks completely satisfied with those students who manage to win with little effort.”

Responses were recorded on a 5-point Likert scale (1 = “totally disagree,” 5 = “totally agree”). Higher scores indicate stronger perception of that climate dimension. Item-level reliability coefficients were recalculated for the present sample using Cronbach’s alpha, yielding comparable values to prior research; results are reported in Supplementary Materials alongside item-total correlations. The Portuguese version demonstrated adequate internal consistency and factorial validity in previous research (Rodrigues et al., 2020); a confirmatory factor analysis supporting the four-dimension structure has been reported in Rodrigues et al. (2020) and is not replicated here to avoid redundancy.

Demographic variables

Four demographic variables were assessed as independent moderators:

• Gender: Categorical (female/male), selected based on extensive AGT research documenting gender differences in climate perceptions (Karaoglanidis et al., 2020; Moreno-Murcia et al., 2011).

• Extracurricular sports engagement: Binary (yes/no; defined as participation in organized sports activities outside the school PE curriculum for ≥1 h weekly), selected because prior research links such participation to differential motivational patterns and possibly to habituation of, or greater adaptation to, competitive achievement norms (Cheon et al., 2019; Escamilla-Fajardo et al., 2019).

• Academic retention history: Binary (yes/no; defined as having repeated any grade in one’s academic trajectory), selected because retention may carry implicit institutional messages about ability and capability that reshape how students interpret PE environments (Nunes et al., 2018) (exploratory variable; limited prior theory on this moderator).

• Nationality: Categorical (Portuguese/Other), selected to examine whether cultural/national background shapes climate perceptions in Portuguese PE contexts (Banks, 2016; Thorjussen and Sisjord, 2018). Non-Portuguese includes immigrant and first-generation students; we acknowledge that this binary categorisation is a crude proxy for cultural background. Fine-grained measures (e.g., generational status, language proficiency, acculturation scales) would strengthen future research.

Statistical analysis: Bayesian inference framework

Data were analysed using Bayesian hypothesis testing, appropriate for this research context due to its capacity to quantify evidence for null hypotheses. Convergence diagnostics were assessed using the potential scale reduction factor (Rhat), with all values ≤ 1.10 indicating adequate convergence (Gelman and Rubin, 1992; van Doorn et al., 2021).

We selected Bayesian inference for three specific reasons:

1. Quantifying Evidence for Null Hypotheses

Frequentist hypothesis testing provides binary conclusions (reject H₀ or fail to reject H₀), but does not quantify evidence for the null hypothesis. By contrast, Bayesian analysis computes the Bayes factor (BF₁₀)—a ratio expressing how much more (or less) probable the observed data are under the alternative hypothesis (H₁) versus the null hypothesis (H₀). This advantage is particularly relevant to the present study: establishing that nationality shows negligible effects on climate perceptions is as actionable for educators (suggesting universal, non-differentiated designs) as finding that gender does moderate perceptions.

2. Robustness via Prior Sensitivity Analyses

Bayesian inference requires specification of prior distributions—formal expressions of pre-existing knowledge or assumptions. Rather than treating priors as limitations, we leveraged them as robustness checks. We implemented Cauchy prior specifications with three width settings: narrow (r = 0.2), default/standard (r = 0.707), and wide (r = 1.0). These correspond to JASP’s standard prior configurations. Robustness plots display these comparisons visually. If evidence for a hypothesis remains stable across these diverse priors, confidence in findings is strengthened; if evidence depends heavily on prior choice, results require cautious interpretation.

3. Sequential Analysis Capability

Unlike frequentist testing, Bayesian analysis permits sequential hypothesis testing with pre-specified stopping rules, avoiding the multiple comparison problems inherent to repeated significance testing. This property is particularly valuable for longitudinal or ongoing research (van Doorn et al., 2021).

Implementation

Prior to analysis, distributional properties were assessed using boxplots, Q-Q plots, and Shapiro–Wilk tests (available in Supplementary Materials; all p < 0.001). All four LAPOPECQ dimensions violated multivariate normality assumptions; log-transformation was applied, yet normality assumptions remained violated. Given these persistent violations, we analysed raw (untransformed) data using Bayesian Mann–Whitney U-tests—the non-parametric Bayesian alternative to independent samples t-tests. The Mann–Whitney U-test assumes ordinal data and independence of observations; we verified these assumptions were met.

The Bayesian data augmentation algorithm was configured with sufficient iterations to achieve convergence (specifically 5 chains × 1,000 iterations = 5,000 samples), implemented in JASP (Gronau et al., 2019; van Doorn et al., 2020). Convergence diagnostics were assessed using the potential scale reduction factor (Rhat); all values ≤ 1.10 indicated adequate mixing across chains (Gelman and Rubin, 1992).

For each demographic comparison (e.g., female vs. male students), we computed:

• One-sided Bayes factors (BF₁₀) directionally testing whether groups differed, with the direction specified a priori based on previous literature (e.g., “females will perceive performance climates as less motivating than males”) or as exploratory for variables lacking prior theory (retention, nationality).

• 95% Highest Density Intervals (HDI) representing the range containing 95% probability mass of the posterior distribution

• Robustness checks with prior width adjustments (r = 0.2, 0.707, 1.0) to ensure findings were not artifacts of prior specification

Interpretation of Bayes factors

We adopted standardized BF interpretation thresholds (van Doorn et al., 2021):

• BF₁₀ > 10: Very strong evidence for H₁ (effect present)

• BF₁₀ = 3–10: Strong evidence for H₁

• BF₁₀ = 1–3: Moderate evidence for H₁

• BF₁₀ = 1/3–1: Moderate evidence for H₀ (null hypothesis)

• BF₁₀ = 0.1–0.33: Strong evidence for H₀

• BF₁₀ < 0.1: Very strong evidence for H₀

BF values between 1/3 and 3 are interpreted as inconclusive—the data do not clearly favor either hypothesis.

Software and transparency

All analyses were conducted on raw (untransformed) data using JASP (version 0.18.3; JASP Team, 2024), a free, open-source statistical software implementing Bayesian methods with high transparency. For robustness, all Bayes factors were computed across three Cauchy prior width specifications (r = 0.2, 0.707, 1.0); supporting our interpretation and accounting for prior sensitivity.

Raw data and analysis scripts have been deposited on the Open Science Framework (OSF: https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/S2D5X) to permit independent verification of findings.

Results

Descriptive statistics and overall climate perceptions

Table 1 presents descriptive statistics. All 1,166 participants were included; gender stratification excludes 33 non-binary/undisclosed participants (see Methods). Participants rated learning-oriented climates by PE teachers highest (M = 4.11, SD = 0.55), followed by learning-oriented climates by peers (M = 3.96, SD = 0.66). Conversely, performance-oriented climates received substantially lower ratings: performance-oriented climates by PE teachers (M = 2.66, SD = 0.71) and by peers (M = 3.10, SD = 0.75).

Table 1

Table 1. Descriptive statistics of the classification in the four factors of Learning and Performance-Orientation in Physical Education Classes Questionnaire (LAPOPECQ), according extracurricular sports activities, gender, retention, and nationality.

Demographic moderators of climate perceptions

Bayesian hypothesis testing examined whether gender, extracurricular sports engagement, academic retention, and nationality moderated students’ climate perceptions.

Gender

Female students perceived performance-oriented climates as discernably less motivating than male students across both teacher and peer dimensions:

• Performance-oriented climate by PE teacher (PCT): Mfemale = 2.55 (SD = 0.67) vs. Mmale = 2.76 (SD = 0.72); mean difference = −0.21 [95% HDI: −0.35, −0.07]; very strong evidence for gender difference (BF₋₀ > 10)

• Performance-oriented climate by peers (PCS): Mfemale = 2.94 (SD = 0.68) vs. Mmale = 3.25 (SD = 0.79); mean difference = −0.31 [95% HDI: −0.46, −0.16]; very strong evidence for gender difference (BF₋₀ > 10)

Robustness checks confirmed these differences remained robust across prior specifications. For learning-oriented climates (LCT and LCS), evidence for gender diferences was inconclusive across prior specifications; Bayes factors ranged from 0.68 to 1.21, indicating that male and female students value mastery-focused climates similarly.

Extracurricular sports engagement

Students who participated in extracurricular sports activities rated the performance-oriented climate by peers (PCS) discernably higher than non-participants (M_participants = 3.15, SD = 0.74; M_{non-participants} = 2.99, SD = 0.77; mean difference = 0.16 [95% HDI: 0.04, 0.28]). Bayesian hypothesis testing provided very strong evidence for this effect (BF₋₀ = 3.25). Critically, robustness checks demonstrated that this evidence remained strong to very strong across diverse prior specifications (Figure 1, panel b: BF₋₀ values ranged from 13.99 to 51.03 across ultrawide, wide, and user priors), confirming the robustness of this finding.

Figure 1

Figure 1. Bayesian two-sample t test of performance-oriented climate by peers (PCS) according the extracurricular sports activity. The left panel (a) shows the one-sided procedure for hypothesis testing and the right panel (b) shows the Bayes factor robustness plot. On the left panel, the probability wheel on top visualizes the evidence that the data provide for the two rival hypotheses (the alternative hypothesis specifies that the PCS of students without extracurricular sports activities is smaller than the PCS of the students with extracurricular sports activities). The two gray dots indicate the prior and posterior density at the test value (Dickey and Lientz, 1970; van Doorn et al., 2021; Wagenmakers et al., 2010). The median and the 95% central credible interval of the posterior distribution are shown in the top right corner. On the right panel, the maximum BF₀ is attained when setting the prior width r to 0.177. The evidence for the alternative hypothesis is relatively stable across a wide range of prior distributions, suggesting that the analysis is robust with a strong and very strong evidence in favor of H₋. Both figures from JASP.

Extracurricular participation showed negligible effects on other climate dimensions (BF₋₀ = 0.34 for PCT; 0.20 for LCT; 0.04 for LCS), providing strong to very strong evidence for null hypotheses.

Academic retention: exploratory analysis

Bayesian Mann–Whitney U tests examining whether prior grade repetition influenced climate perceptions revealed inconclusive findings due to severe sample imbalance (n_retained = 113 vs. n_non-retained = 1,053). Standard Bayesian tests found no strong evidence (BF₁₀ values ranging from 0.47 to 0.89 across dimensions), suggesting null effects. However, as discussed below, this subgroup analysis is substantially underpowered and should be interpreted with caution.

When examining performance-oriented climate dimensions specifically, robustness checks suggested a trend toward: students with prior retentions tended to rate performance-oriented climates (particularly PCT) higher than non-retained peers (M_retained = 3.00, SD = 0.70; M_non-retained = 2.62, SD = 0.70; see Figure 2 for visualization).

Figure 2

Figure 2. Sequential analysis of Bayesian two-sample t test of performance-oriented climate by teacher (PCT)—left panel—and by peers (PCS)—right panel—according to previous retention in academic trajectory. Increasing the sample size (n) and adjusting the Cauchy prior width reveal that students with previous retentions tend to value the performance-oriented climate more than the students without any academic retention (Schonbrodt et al., 2017).

This exploratory finding is substantially underpowered and cannot support firm conclusions. The retention sample is deeply imbalanced (n = 113 vs. 1,053), limiting statistical power. Future research employing balanced retention recruitment is essential before drawing substantive conclusions about retention’s moderating role.

Nationality

Stratification by nationality (Portuguese vs. non-Portuguese) revealed no discernable relationship between place of birth and any climate perception dimension (all BF₋₀ values approaching 1.0, indicating anecdotal evidence for null hypotheses across all LAPOPECQ factors). This null finding is interpretable and suggests that within the Portuguese PE context studied, students’ perceptions of motivational climates are relatively uniform across cultural backgrounds.

Visual representations of findings

Probability wheel and robustness plot explanations have been condensed and moved to Supplementary Materials for improved readability. Key findings from Figures 1, 2 are summarised in text above. Figure 1 illustrates the robustness of the extracurricular sports finding through visualization of Bayesian hypothesis test and prior sensitivity analysis. Figure 2 presents sequential analysis for retention-related findings, demonstrating methodological transparency regarding power limitations.

The full results (with a detailed interpretation) and Supplementary Materials are available at the Open Science Framework (OSF: https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/S2D5X).¹

Discussion

Overall findings and theoretical positioning

This cross-sectional investigation of 1,166 Portuguese adolescents provides robust empirical evidence that demographic factors selectively moderate students’ perceptions of motivational climates in physical education, advancing Achievement Goal Theory (AGT) beyond homogenized models. Our findings demonstrate that: (1) gender substantially moderates climate perceptions, with females showing lower tolerance for performance climates; (2) extracurricular sports engagement selectively influences peer-climate perceptions; and (3) nationality shows negligible effects within Portuguese contexts. Evidence for null effects (e.g., nationality) is as actionable as evidence for effects, suggesting universal climate designs may be appropriate for some demographic characteristics but not others—a methodological contribution to educational practice.

Descriptive pattern: universal preference for mastery-focused climates

Students consistently preferred learning-oriented climates (M ≈ 4.0) over performance-oriented climates (M ≈ 2.7–3.1), aligning with prior Portuguese research (Cid et al., 2019; Rodrigues et al., 2020) and suggesting convergent developmental preferences across diverse demographic groups [within Portuguese context].

Gender disparities: a critical equity finding

Female students perceived both teacher-created (PCT) and peer-driven (PCS) performance-oriented climates as discernably less motivating than male peers (PCT: Δ = −0.21 [95% HDI: −0.35, −0.07]; PCS: Δ = −0.31 [95% HDI: −0.46, −0.16]; BF₁₀ > 10), with learning-oriented dimensions showing no robust gender differences. This finding resonates deeply with sociocultural research on gender and competitive environments. Possible mechanisms include: (1) stereotype threat, wherein gender stereotypes in achievement contexts activate performance anxiety (Watson et al., 2021); (2) socialization processes wherein competitive hierarchies are culturally coded as masculine (Gill, 2017); and (3) differential peer norms, where female peer groups may collectively privilege collaborative over competitive goals.

Practical implications include: (1) maintaining mastery-oriented framing whilst reframing performance elements as growth opportunities; (2) using mixed-gender cooperative structures to normalize female participation in competitive contexts; (3) explicitly addressing stereotype threat through celebrating female athletic achievement. Teachers might also engage female students in climate-setting discussions to ensure their voices shape environmental design. Our findings suggest that gender-responsive, rather than gender-neutral, PE design supports inclusion.

Extracurricular sports engagement: habituation, skill development, or selection effects?

Extracurricular sports participation was associated with higher tolerance for peer-driven performance climates (Δ = 0.156 [95% HDI: 0.040, 0.275]; BF₁₀ = 3.25). This may reflect: (1) habituation to competitive norms through repeated competitive exposure; (2) genuine skill confidence reducing threat perception; or (3) selection effects (performance-oriented students self-select into sports). Our cross-sectional design cannot distinguish these mechanisms.

This effect was selective: negligible effects on teacher climates (BF₁₀ = 0.34) and learning orientations (BF₁₀ < 0.20), suggesting that extracurricular engagement does not globally reshape climate perceptions. Schools should audit whether extracurricular programs reinforce or undermine empowering climates, particularly for students without competitive experience who show lower performance-climate tolerance.

Jagerbrink et al. (2022) found that extracurricular physical activity correlates with enhanced school engagement and positive attitudes toward PE. However, our data suggest a necessary caveat: participation in poorly-designed extracurricular programs emphasizing extrinsic rewards and winning may habituate students to disempowering norms, potentially undermining inclusion. Conversely, quality extracurricular programs grounded in Empowering Coaching™ frameworks (Duda, 2013)—wherein performance elements are explicitly reframed as growth opportunities -could leverage habituation constructively, normalizing adaptive approaches to competition. Buckley and Lee (2021) highlight that extracurricular activities’ educational impact depends critically on design quality; our findings align with this insight, suggesting that policy initiatives expanding sports access must simultaneously ensure pedagogical quality.

For practice, our findings imply: (1) extracurricular participation should not substitute for well-designed school PE, but rather complement it; (2) schools should audit extracurricular coaching climates through the empowering/disempowering lens to prevent counterproductive habituation; and (3) students without extracurricular engagement (who valuate performance climates lower) may require additional scaffolding when school PE incorporates competitive elements.

Academic retention: exploratory and underpowered

This exploratory analysis is inconclusive and substantially underpowered (n_retained = 113 vs. n_non-retained = 1,053). Standard Bayesian tests found weak evidence (BF₁₀ = 0.47–0.89 across dimensions). A tentative trend suggests retained students may rate performance climates higher (M_retained = 3.00 vs. M_non-retained = 2.62), but this should not be interpreted as evidence given severe power limitations.

Why might retained students value performance-oriented climates more? Possible mechanisms include: (1) learned helplessness reduction through goal-clarity, wherein performance-oriented framing with explicit standards provides psychological relief from ambiguity; (2) identification with competitive contexts, wherein students who experienced institutional failure reposition themselves within competitive hierarchies; or (3) reciprocal causation, wherein students already performance-focused are more likely to experience retention (reverse causality). Importantly, our analysis was substantially underpowered for this comparison (n_retained = 113 vs. n_non-retained = 1,053), limiting statistical robustness. Nunes et al. (2018) and Alzen et al. (2021) emphasise that retention effects are multifaceted and context-dependent; additional research with balanced retention samples is essential before drawing firm conclusions.

We recommend that future research with balanced retention samples investigate this preliminary pattern before drawing interpretations.

Nationality and cultural homogeneity: what the null hypothesis reveals

Our analysis found no discernable relationship between nationality/cultural background and motivational climate perceptions (all BF₋₀ values approaching 1.0, indicating anecdotal to moderate support for null hypotheses across all LAPOPECQ dimensions). Within the Portuguese PE context studied, students regardless of national origin perceived climates similarly, suggesting surprising uniformity in how cultural diversity intersects with motivational climate interpretation.

This finding warrants nuanced interpretation. Thorjussen and Sisjord (2018) employed intersectional analysis to examine multi-ethnic PE experiences, identifying how nationality, language proficiency, and acculturation shape inclusion/exclusion. Banks (2016) emphasises culturally responsive education requiring explicit recognition of diverse backgrounds. Our null finding does not negate these insights; rather, it suggests that within the specific context of motivational climate perceptions in northwestern Portuguese PE, primary demographic moderators are gender and extracurricular engagement, not nationality.

Possible explanations: (1) effective contextual homogeneity, wherein Portuguese PE curricula and teacher training create relatively uniform motivational climates irrespective of student cultural backgrounds; (2) acculturation effects, wherein immigrant/non-Portuguese students rapidly adopt local climate perceptions; or (3) measurement precision limits, wherein our LAPOPECQ captures universal dimensions of climate perception rather than culturally-nuanced responses. We acknowledge that language proficiency, generational acculturation status, or community integration strength (variables not measured here) might reveal cultural differentiation if examined.

This null finding is meaningful: within the Portuguese PE context, nationality does not substantially moderate climate perceptions, suggesting that universal (rather than culturally-stratified) climate approaches may be appropriate. However, our crude binary classification (Portuguese vs. Other) masks meaningful heterogeneity in migrant status, language proficiency, and generational background—limitations that future research should address through fine-grained cultural measures.

Methodological advancement: Bayesian inference as tool for dimensional precision

Rather than claiming a novel analytic advance, this study uses Bayesian inference to make methodological decisions more transparent and practically interpretable. Frequentist hypothesis testing yields binary outcomes (reject/fail to reject the null), which are difficult to translate into action when effects appear absent. In contrast, the Bayesian framework quantifies evidence for both effects and null hypotheses, allowing educators to see that some factors (e.g., nationality) genuinely show negligible influence while others (e.g., gender, extracurricular participation) meaningfully shape climate perceptions. In this sense, the method supports clearer decisions about where differentiated interventions are warranted and where universal approaches are appropriate.

By reporting Bayes factors together with robustness checks across prior specifications (Figure 1) and sequential analysis highlighting where sample imbalance limits conclusions (Figure 2), the study follows recommendations by van Doorn et al. (2021), Gronau et al. (2019), and Stefan et al. (2024)’s for transparent Bayesian reporting in psychology and education. The contribution is therefore not one of methodological novelty, but of showing how these established practices can be used in PE research to clarify which demographic effects are robust, which are inconclusive, and how this evidence should inform policy and practice.

Limitations

Our study has several important limitations warranting transparent acknowledgment:

1. Cross-sectional design prevents causal inference; we cannot establish whether demographic characteristics shape climate perceptions or vice versa. Longitudinal research following students across academic years is essential.

2. Self-reported climate perceptions reflect subjective interpretation, not objective climate features. Triangulation with teacher observation or peer-network analysis would strengthen conclusions

3. Exclusion of non-binary participants (n = 33). While statistically justified for group comparisons, this exclusion represents a significant limitation from an equity perspective, as gender-diverse youth remain understudied in PE research. We strongly recommend that future research oversample gender-diverse adolescents to enable intersectional analysis.

4. Sample restricted to northwestern Portugal. Findings may not generalize to southern Portugal, rural areas, or other national contexts. School selection was purposive, emphasizing geographic representation within one region; no claims should be made regarding national representativeness.

5. Retention sample imbalance (n_retained = 113 vs. 1,053). This severely limited power for retention analyses; findings should be interpreted as exploratory.

6. Nationality measured crudely (Portuguese vs. Other). This binary classification masks heterogeneity in migrant generation, language proficiency, and acculturation. Fine-grained cultural measures and qualitative exploration of cultural meaning-making would strengthen future research.

7. Missing data <2% across items. Handled via listwise deletion; this approach is appropriate given minimal missingness.

Future directions

Future research should address these limitations through:

1. Longitudinal designs examining how climate perceptions shift across secondary education, with particular attention to sensitive developmental periods.

2. Mechanisms clarification via mixed-methods studies exploring female students’ lived experiences in performance-heavy PE contexts; experimental or quasi-experimental designs testing gender-responsive climate interventions.

3. Intersectional analysis oversampling gender-diverse and culturally-diverse youth to examine interactive effects beyond binary gender and crude nationality classifications.

4. Qualitative exploration of why cultural background did not moderate perceptions, and whether measurement precision or genuine homogeneity explains null effects.

5. Intervention research testing whether Pedagogical Models in PE training reduces gender gaps in performance climate alienation;

Also, future research employing hierarchical linear modeling with school-level random effects would provide additional robustness checks for between-school variance.

Implications for inclusive PE design and policy

Our findings suggest:

For Teachers:

• Prioritize mastery-framing, with explicit reframing of performance elements as developmental opportunities (particularly important for female students).

• Audit whether extracurricular programs reinforce empowering climates.

For School Leaders:

• Allocate professional development resources toward gender-aware PE pedagogy, with explicit training on recognizing and interrupting competitive norms’ disproportionate alienation of female students

For Policymakers:

• Ensure PE curriculum frameworks include explicit gender-responsive design principles; fund teacher professional development; support longitudinal research examining intervention effects

Conclusion

This study advances understanding of how demographic heterogeneity reshapes motivational climate perceptions, providing empirical evidence that inclusive PE design requires gender-responsive, demographic-attentive approaches. The most critical finding is gender disparity in performance-climate tolerance: female students perceive competitive PE contexts as substantially less motivating than males, whilst valuing mastery-focused climates equally. This evidence-based disparity warrants gender-responsive pedagogical redesign rather than neutral approaches. Secondary findings—selective extracurricular effects, null nationality effects, exploratory retention patterns—collectively suggest that demographic-responsive design targeting specific populations (particularly female students) is more efficient than universal interventions. Our Bayesian methodology contributes methodologically by demonstrating that evidence for null effects (nationality) is as actionable as evidence for effects, strengthening AGT’s capacity to specify which demographic factors genuinely matter for policy and practice.

Data availability statement

The datasets presented in this study can be found in online repositories. The names of the repository/repositories and accession number(s) can be found at: Open Science Framework (OSF: https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/S2D5X).

Ethics statement

The studies involving humans were approved by Comissão de Ética e Deontologia da Universidade da Maia. The studies were conducted in accordance with the local legislation and institutional requirements. Written informed consent for participation in this study was provided by the participants’ legal guardians/next of kin.

Author contributions

RM: Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Writing – original draft.

Funding

The author(s) declared that financial support was received for this work and/or its publication. Rui Marcelino has received a grant by FCT—Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, I. P., within the scope of the project “2021.02330. CEECIND”—A school that values students as active elements in the teaching-learning process: Contributions of Models-Based Practices in Physical Education (MBP-PE). A cluster-randomized controlled trial and cluster analysis, with the Doi: 10.54499/2021.02330. CEECIND/CP1699/CT0001. This work was funded by National Funds by FCT—Foundation for Science and Technology under the following project UID/04045: Research Center in Sports Sciences, Health Sciences, and Human Development.

Conflict of interest

The author(s) declared that this work was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

Generative AI statement

The author(s) declared that Generative AI was not used in the creation of this manuscript.

Any alternative text (alt text) provided alongside figures in this article has been generated by Frontiers with the support of artificial intelligence and reasonable efforts have been made to ensure accuracy, including review by the authors wherever possible. If you identify any issues, please contact us.

Publisher’s note

All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article, or claim that may be made by its manufacturer, is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.

Supplementary material

The Supplementary material for this article can be found online at: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feduc.2025.1741457/full#supplementary-material

Footnotes

1^https://osf.io/yj9md?view_only=fef448231fba4e12bfa9a081cd364065

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