Low-Carbon Transition and Common Prosperity: A Quasi-Natural Experiment Based on Pilot Policies of Low-Carbon Cities

Jingyi LiangCuixia Qiao^*

• Shandong Normal University, Jinan, China

Green and low-carbon development is a fundamental pathway to modernization and a critical driver of common prosperity. Using panel data from 279 prefecture-level cities in China from 2010 to 2022, this study employs a staggered difference-in-differences model to empirically examine the impact of low-carbon city pilot policies on common prosperity and their underlying mechanisms. The results reveal that: (1) the implementation of low-carbon city pilot policies significantly promotes common prosperity, this result remained robust in multiple robustness tests, and this effect exhibits a time lag; (2) green technological innovation plays a U-shaped moderating role in the relationship between low-carbon city pilot policies and common prosperity; (3) low-carbon city pilot policies contribute to common prosperity by enhancing employment quality and fostering human capital agglomeration; (4) the positive effects of low-carbon city pilot policies are more significant in eastern and central regions, non-central cities, cities with lower urbanization levels, and cities with smaller income disparities. These findings offer valuable policy insights into balancing ecological sustainability with economic and social equity, underscoring the pivotal role of green transformation in advancing sustainable and inclusive development.