Policy Simulation and Analysis of the Optimal Growth Path of Carbon Emissions in Hubei Province's Tourism Industry under Low-Carbon Scenario

Yuping Long¹Feng Li^2*

• ¹Hubei University of Arts and Science, Xiangyang, Hubei, China
• ²University of Sanya, Sanya, China

The tourism industry is a significant contributor to China’s economic growth; however, its inherent high energy consumption results in considerable carbon emission pressure. This study aims to identify the optimal carbon emission reduction pathways for China’s tourism sector within a low-carbon policy framework, utilizing a system dynamics model to examine the balance between economic expansion and environmental sustainability. By analyzing macroeconomic and tourism industry data from Hubei Province spanning 2013 to 2023, a system dynamics model comprising four integral components—economic, energy, policy, and environmental—was developed. The study contrasts the baseline scenario with an enhanced low-carbon scenario to evaluate the effects of policy interventions on carbon emissions. The results show that under the baseline scenario, carbon emissions from the tourism industry will increase from 1 million tons in 2013 to 1.8229 million tons by 2033, with an average annual growth rate of 3.36%. In contrast, under the comprehensive joint policy scenario combining carbon tax, technology subsidies, and green standards, carbon emissions are effectively controlled at 1.412 million tons by 2033—a 22.5% reduction compared to the baseline. Meanwhile, tourism revenue still reaches 742 billion yuan, only 0.4% lower than the baseline. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis indicates that policy intensity and technological advancement exert significant moderating effects on carbon emissions. Under the joint policy scenario, the 95% confidence interval for projected emissions converges to a narrow range of 1.387 to 1.439 million tons, with a fluctuation of less than 50,000 tons, demonstrating strong steady-state control capability. This research affirms the effectiveness of low-carbon policy mixes in optimizing carbon emissions within the tourism sector, with varying emission reduction potentials across different policy pathways. Additionally, the study uncovers the driving mechanisms of tourism-related carbon emissions and provides both theoretical insights and policy recommendations for achieving green transformation and promoting sustainable development.