ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Environ. Sci.

Sec. Environmental Economics and Management

Volume 13 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1617170

Impact of Natural Capital Loss on Poverty in the Yucatán Peninsula, Mexico: A Synthetic Control Analysis

Provisionally accepted
Gerzaín Aviles-PolancoGerzaín Aviles-Polanco1Luis BeltranLuis Beltran1*Laura SourLaura Sour2Víctor Hernández-TrejoVíctor Hernández-Trejo3Adan L. Martinez-CruzAdan L. Martinez-Cruz4Alfredo Ortega-RubioAlfredo Ortega-Rubio1
  • 1Centro de Investigación Biológica del Noroeste (CIBNOR), La Paz, Mexico
  • 2Anahuac University of North Mexico, Huixquilucan de Degollado, México, Mexico
  • 3Universidad Autónoma de Baja California Sur, La Paz, Baja California Sur, Mexico
  • 4Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Uppsala, Sweden

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This study explores the relationship between natural capital, environmental policies, and poverty alleviation, with a focus on the Yucatán Peninsula in Mexico. Utilizing analytical techniques such as the Synthetic Control Method, the research assesses the causal impact of natural capital loss—estimated at 14.29% between 2018 and 2022—on multidimensional poverty levels. Findings indicate that the decline in natural resources has contributed to a roughly 2% increase in poverty, preventing approximately 232,150 individuals from escaping impoverishment. The construction of infrastructure projects like the Mayan Train has significantly contributed to natural resource depletion. Despite ongoing social policies—including social programs and infrastructure investments—these efforts have been partially offset by ecological degradation, underscoring the importance of integrating ecological considerations into development strategies. The study emphasizes that conserving natural capital is vital for sustainable development and social well-being, advocating for policies that balance economic growth with ecological preservation. Incorporating ecological metrics, such as the natural capital index, into poverty assessments can enhance policy effectiveness. Overall, the findings underscore that environmental conservation is essential for effective poverty reduction, urging policymakers to adopt integrated approaches that prioritize ecological health alongside social and economic objectives for sustainable development.

Keywords: Multidimensional poverty, natural capital, Synthetic control, Yucatan Peninsula, Mayan Train

Received: 24 Apr 2025; Accepted: 01 Jul 2025.

Copyright: © 2025 Aviles-Polanco, Beltran, Sour, Hernández-Trejo, Martinez-Cruz and Ortega-Rubio. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

* Correspondence: Luis Beltran, Centro de Investigación Biológica del Noroeste (CIBNOR), La Paz, Mexico

Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.

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