ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Environ. Sci.
Sec. Environmental Informatics and Remote Sensing
Volume 13 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1685330
NDVI dynamics and drivers in the Kalamaili Ungulate Nature Reserve: insights from an arid ecosystem in northwest China
Provisionally accepted
- 1School of Geography and Tourism, Xinjiang Normal University, Urumqi, China
- 2Chinese Academy of Forestry Xinjiang Branch, Urumqi, China
- 3Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Workstation of the Fifth Division of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, Shuanghe, China
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The Kalamaili Ungulate Nature Reserve is a vital ecological unit and an important sanctuary for wild ungulates. Located in the arid northwestern region of China, it is highly sensitive to climate change. This study used the NDVI and meteorological data to assess vegetation growth and employed a combination of methods, including Theil–Sen trend analysis, the Mann–Kendall test, the Hurst index, partial correlation analysis, lag time analysis, and multiple regression residual analysis, to investigate the response mechanisms of NDVI. The results showed that: (1) NDVI in the reserve showed an increasing trend from 2001 to 2022, with a growth rate of 0.0002 per year. NDVI values were generally higher in the western region than in the eastern region. (2) Temperature was the dominant factor influencing NDVI on both annual and growing -season scales, while precipitation had a greater effect on NDVI during the annual, summer, autumn, and growing seasons. (3) The NDVI trend is projected to shift from an upward to a downward trend in the future, potentially affecting 59.16% of the reserve. This emphasizes the importance of ongoing vegetation monitoring. (4) Temperature showed a two-month lag effect on NDVI, whereas precipitation had a one-month lag effect. (5) Residual analysis revealed that both climate change and human activities contributed to vegetation improvement, accounting for 55.69% of the observed changes. Overall, given that the Kashan Reserve lies within China's arid northwestern region and is highly vulnerable to global warming, these findings provide a scientific foundation for managing the reserve and developing sustainable strategies. They also offer valuable insights for research on similar desert ecosystems.
Keywords: NDVI, Driving factors, Climate Change, Human activity, Xinjiang
Received: 13 Aug 2025; Accepted: 22 Oct 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Yan, Wang, Sun, Zhang, Han, Peng and Luo. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Wei Han, hanwei@xjnu.edu.cn
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