ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Environ. Sci.
Sec. Drylands
Change Patterns and Dominant Factors of Drought in Baoshan City During 2010–2024
Provisionally accepted
- 1Chinese academy of science, Beijing, China
- 2Yunnan Tobacco Company, Kunming, China
- 3Honghe Company, Yunan Tobacco Company, Mile, China
- 4Shandong University of Technology, Zibo, China
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Under the background of global climate change and human activities, drought in Baoshan City, Yunnan Province, has undergone significant changes. There is an urgent need to comprehensively investigate the long-term spatiotemporal dynamics of drought intensity and its spatial distribution in this region. This study utilized the monthly MOD13A2 and MOD11A2 data from 2010 to 2024 to synthesize the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Land Surface Temperature (LST) datasets and then retrieved the Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI). By applying time-series analysis, centroid analysis, and geographical detector methods, the spatiotemporal evolution patterns and their driving factors of drought were systematically examined. The results indicated that: (1) Drought exhibited significant spatial heterogeneity, with moderate and severe drought being the predominant types, collectively accounting for 81.45% of the area. (2) The interannual TVDI showed a slight upward trend (slope = 0.0004 a-1), while the intra-annual variation followed a "high in winter and spring, low in summer and autumn" pattern, with the mean winter TVDI (0.9) being approximately 1.5 times that of autumn (0.58). (3) The centroid of drought generally migrated northwestward, with the longest migration distance (1.28 km) occurring from 2013–2015 to 2016–2018. (4) Elevation was the persistently dominant factor (q-value: 0.648–0.721), although the influence of human activity factors (e.g., the interaction between GDP and elevation reached a q-value of 0.753 in 2015) showed a stage-specific enhancement. (5) The transition characteristics of drought severity levels differed markedly between periods: during 2010–2017, drought primarily transitioned toward severe and mild drought (8.59% of the total area), whereas during 2017–2024, mild drought areas shifted predominantly toward moderate drought (6.59%). The results could provide important decision support for drought prevention and control in Baoshan City, Yunnan Province.
Keywords: Baoshan City, Centroid, Geographical detector, trend analysis, TVDI
Received: 24 Oct 2025; Accepted: 26 Nov 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Lin, Zhao, Liu, Zhao, Li, Hu and Zhang. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence:
Huihui Zhao
Runze Zhang
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