Spatiotemporal Analysis and Mapping of LULC Changes and Thermal Environment Variations in Al Khobar, Saudi Arabia Using Remote Sensing Techniques

Khadeijah Faqeih^1*Sumaih Alamry¹Eman Alamri¹Maha Abdullah Aldubehi¹Omar Mohammed Al-Khalil²Mohamed E. Fadl^3*

• ¹Princess Nourah bint Abdulrahman University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
• ²Latakia University, Latakia, Syria
• ³National Authority for Remote Sensing and Space Sciences, Cairo, Egypt

This study investigates the relationship between landuse/landcover (LULC) changes and land surface temperature (LST) in Al-Khobar city, Saudi Arabia, during the period of 1999-2024 using Landsat satellite data. Over the 25-year period, the study found substantial changes, including a 71.5% increase in urban areas, reflecting rapid urbanization and substantial infrastructure growth. Barren lands decreased by 50.6%, while water bodies shrank by 20.1%, and vegetation cover grew by 12.4%. The study relied on several change detection techniques ranging from post-classification to spectral indices. The average LST rose from 40.2°C in 1999 to 42.5°C in 2024. The analysis of spectral indices provides a critical confirmation of arid urban thermal dynamics: a consistent positive correlation between the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the LST in 1999 and 2024, challenging the universal applicability of the vegetation-cooling paradigm. This suggests that the cooling efficacy of irrigated urban greenery in such environments is highly contingent and can be compromised by the surrounding heat-retaining built-up matrix. A strong positive correlation between the normalized difference built-up index (NDBI) and the LST revealing a significant urban expansion as the primary driver of heating, with NDBI values increased from 0.395 in 1999 to 0.635 in 2024, which is linked to the rise in surface temperatures. Additionally, a strong negative correlation between the normalized difference water index (NDWI) and the LST was also observed, with NDWI values declining from 0.518, 1999 to 0.294, 2024, and the minimum value slightly decreasing from -0.415 to -0.448, highlighting the disproportionate cooling importance of water bodies in arid settings. This suggests a diminished surface area of water bodies, which lead to heating the surface by 2024. The correlation between the barren soil index (BSI) and the LST was negative, with BSI values decreasing from 0.374, 1999 to 0.267, 2024, which indicates a reduced influence of barren land on LST over time. These findings provide evidence-based refinement of LULC-LST dynamics in arid environments, concluding that sustainable urban planning in desert cities should focus on the conservation of water bodies, mandate high-albedo materials, and re-evaluate greening plans based on cooling efficacy rather than mere area coverage.