ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. For. Glob. Change
Sec. Forest Management
Volume 8 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/ffgc.2025.1551024
This article is part of the Research TopicStructure and Functioning of Alpine Treeline EcosystemsView all 6 articles
Population Status and Impact of Climate Change on the Distribution of Vulnerable Multipurpose Plant Hippophae rhamnoides subsp. turkestanica for conservation in Trans Himalaya, India
Provisionally accepted
Shiv Paul1,2
Khilendra Singh Kanwal2*
Anil Kumar2
Sher Singh Singh Samant1,2Indra Dutt Bhatt2
R.C. SUNDRIYAL3Swaran Lata1- 1Himalayan Forest Research Institute (HFRI), Shimla, Shimla, Himachal Pradesh, India
- 2Govind Ballabh Pant National Institute of Himalayan Environment and Sustainable Development, Almora, India
- 3Hemwati Nandan Bahuguna Garhwal University, Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir, India
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The populations of globally significant species in the Himalayas are invariable shrinking due to multiple forms of human manipulation. Over the decades, various species' natural habitats have been influenced by changing climate patterns, and the trends are consistently increasing, which is an issue of concern. The Hippophae rhamnoides subsp. turkestanica Rousi is a critical species native to the Himalayas, belonging to the Elaeagnaceae family. It is widely known for its significant ecological, economic, and social benefits. There is a great need to conserve this species in the cold desert region to improve the livelihood and socio-economic status of tribal communities. Therefore, the current study aims to assess the population status and predict highly suitable areas for Trans-Himalaya species under changing climatic conditions. The machine learning algorithm showed that Bio_6 (minimum temperature of the coldest month), elevation, and slope were the best suitable variables for the habitat prediction along with the CMIP6 project's MIROC6 and CMCC-ESM2 climate change models to identify the potential distribution area of the species for the future under the SSP245 (Middle of the Way) and SSP585 (Fossil-Fueled Development) scenarios respectively. The result found that a 2.20% (4028 km 2 ) area is highly suitable for the species' occurrence. The potential suitability areas of the species are predicted to expand along the boundary of the present distribution areas by the pace of climatic change. The current study findings will help to determine the species resource reserve in the Trans Himalaya. The predicted distribution maps of the species would help policymakers and decision-makers design appropriate management and sustainable utilization approaches in the near future.
Keywords: distribution, Maxent, Niche modelling, Climate Change, Trans himalaya
Received: 24 Dec 2024; Accepted: 05 May 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Paul, Kanwal, Kumar, Singh Samant, Bhatt, SUNDRIYAL and Lata. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Khilendra Singh Kanwal, Govind Ballabh Pant National Institute of Himalayan Environment and Sustainable Development, Almora, India
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