A horizon scan to inform research priorities on post-wildfire forest restoration and recovery in the western United States

Kelly W Jones^1,2*Daniel Cadol³Melinda Morgan⁴Camille Stevens-Rumann^5,6Diane Agnew⁷Owen T Burney²James Calabaza⁸Marin E Chambers⁵Catrin M Edgeley⁹Donald Falk¹⁰Lee G Hughes¹¹Chris Marsh¹²Courtney A Schultz⁶Laura McCarthy¹³Ryan Morrison¹⁴Manuel Montoya¹⁵Julie Padowski¹⁶Matt Piccarello¹⁷Jesse Roach¹⁸Michael Roberts¹⁹Kyle Rodman²⁰Jack Triepke²¹Lani Tsinnajinnie²²Nicolena vonHedemann²⁰Alex J Webster¹²William C Buettner⁶Abelino Fernandez Leger³Alyssa Mineau¹Lindsey Rotche⁴Gregory Russell⁶Jamie Woolet⁶

• ¹Department of Fish, Wildlife and Conservation Ecology,College of Agricultural, Consumer, and Environmental Sciences, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, New Mexico, United States
• ²JTH Forestry Research Center, New Mexico State University, Mora, United States
• ³Department of Earth and Environmental Science, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, United States
• ⁴Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, New Mexico, United States
• ⁵Colorado Forest Restoration Institute, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States
• ⁶Department of Forest and Rangeland Stewardship, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States
• ⁷Albuquerque Bernalillo County Water Utility Authority, Albuquerque, NM, United States
• ⁸Trees, Water & People, Fort Collins, United States
• ⁹School of Forestry, College of the Environment, Forestry, and Natural Sciences, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, Arizona, United States
• ¹⁰School of Natural Resources and The Environment, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, United States
• ¹¹Philmont Scout Ranch Conservation Department, BSA, Cimarron, United States
• ¹²Department of Biology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, New Mexico, United States
• ¹³New Mexico Forestry Division, State of New Mexico, Santa Fe, United States
• ¹⁴Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Walter Scott Jr College of Engineering, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States
• ¹⁵Department of Economics, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, United States
• ¹⁶School of the Environment, College of Agricultural, Human, and Natural Resource Sciences, Washington State University, Pullman, Washington, United States
• ¹⁷Forest Stewards Guild, Santa Fe, United States
• ¹⁸City of Santa Fe Water, Santa Fe, United States
• ¹⁹New Mexico Forest and Watershed Restoration Institute, New Mexico Highlands University, Las Vegas, United States
• ²⁰Ecological Restoration Institute, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, Arizona, United States
• ²¹USDA Forest Service, Southwestern Region, Albuquerque, United States
• ²²Department of Community and Regional Planning, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, United States

The frequency, severity, and scale of extreme wildfire events is increasing globally, with certain regions such as the western United States (US) disproportionately impacted. As attention shifts toward understanding how to adapt to and recover from extreme wildfire, there is a need to prioritize where additional research and evidence are needed to inform decision-making. In this paper, we use a horizon-scanning approach to identify key topics that could guide post-wildfire forest restoration and recovery efforts in the western US over the next few decades. Horizon scanning is a method that uses an iterative and structured expert-elicitation process to identify emerging themes or set research agendas. Experts from across researcher and practitioner organizations identified 12 topics as having the greatest potential impact, and being the most time-sensitive to address, for advancing knowledge on post-wildfire forest restoration and recovery. Five topics fall under the social sciences, including institutional coordination, collaborative governance, pre-fire planning, community engagement and equity, and workforce development; four topics relate to forest management, including seed and seedlings, outplanting strategies, post-fire forest trajectories, and climate-informed reforestation; and three relate to hydrology, including soil erosion mitigation, flood and debris flow mitigation, and post-fire water quantity and quality trajectories. While conducted for the contiguous western US, this analysis is relevant for other regions where both people and forests are impacted by extreme wildfire events. Addressing these topics has the potential to improve the equity, effectiveness, and efficiency of post-wildfire forest restoration and recovery responses.