Prediction of the Potential Distribution of Piptanthus nepalensis in China Under Future

Yanhui YEAohang JINGYanying HAN^*

• Tibet Agriculture and Animal Husbandry College, Linzhi, China

Abstract：Climate change has induced unprecedented shifts in ecosystems, including alterations in species distributions, abundance, and richness across multiple taxa and scales. This study employs the MaxEnt model to predict the potential distribution patterns of Piptanthus nepalensis in China under current and future climate scenarios and to assess its response to climate change. Through rigorous model optimization and selection of environmental variables, the analysis demonstrated excellent predictive performance (Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve, AUC = 0.985). Key findings reveal that: (1) The current total suitable habitat area is 25.78 × 10⁴ km², with high-suitability zones (6.90 × 10⁴ km²) concentrated along the Sichuan-Yunnan-Tibet border; (2) Under future climate scenarios, lowsuitability areas exhibit a general expansion (peaking at 31.29 × 10⁴ km² under SSP370 by mid-century), whereas high-suitability areas undergo substantial contraction (declining to 3.92 × 10⁴ km² under SSP585); (3) Habitat quality is negatively correlated with climate emission intensity, with high-suitability zones exhibiting relative stability under low-emission scenarios (SSP126: 0.71%-0.83%) but experiencing pronounced "expansion-contraction oscillations" under highemission scenarios (SSP585). Given these findings, we recommend prioritizing conservation efforts in the Sichuan-Yunnan-Tibet core regions while closely monitoring the ecological risks associated with the expansion of low-suitability habitats. This study provides critical scientific insights for the climate-adaptive management of alpine endemic species.