Abstract
COVID-19 pandemic is the greatest communicable disease outbreak to have hit Malaysia since the 1918 Spanish Flu which killed 34,644 people or 1% of the population of the then British Malaya. In 1999, the Nipah virus outbreak killed 105 Malaysians, while the SARS outbreak of 2003 claimed only 2 lives. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has so far claimed over 100 Malaysian lives. There were two waves of the COVID-19 cases in Malaysia. First wave of 22 cases occurred from January 25 to February 15 with no death and full recovery of all cases. The ongoing second wave, which commenced on February 27, presented cases in several clusters, the biggest of which was the Sri Petaling Tabligh cluster with an infection rate of 6.5%, and making up 47% of all cases in Malaysia. Subsequently, other clusters appeared from local mass gatherings and imported cases of Malaysians returning from overseas. Healthcare workers carry high risks of infection due to the daily exposure and management of COVID-19 in the hospitals. However, 70% of them were infected through community transmission and not while handling patients. In vulnerable groups, the incidence of COVID-19 cases was highest among the age group 55 to 64 years. In terms of fatalities, 63% were reported to be aged above 60 years, and 81% had chronic comorbidities such as diabetes, hypertension, and heart diseases. The predominant COVID-19 strain in Malaysia is strain B, which is found exclusively in East Asia. However, strain A, which is mostly found in the USA and Australia, and strain C in Europe were also present. To contain the epidemic, Malaysia implemented a Movement Control Order (MCO) beginning on March 18 in 4 phases over 2 months, ending on May 12. In terms of economic impacts, Malaysia lost RM2.4 billion a day during the MCO period, with an accumulated loss of RM63 billion up to the end of April. Since May 4, Malaysia has relaxed the MCO and opened up its economic sector to relieve its economic burden. Currently, the best approach to achieving herd immunity to COVID-19 is through vaccination rather than by acquiring it naturally. There are at least two candidate vaccines which have reached the final stage of human clinical trials. Malaysia's COVID-19 case fatality rate is lower than what it is globally; this is due to the successful implementation of early preparedness and planning, the public health and hospital system, comprehensive contact tracing, active case detection, and a strict enhanced MCO.
Introduction
Pandemics of the 20–21st century
Throughout the 20th century, three influenza pandemics occurred over several decades; the most severe was the “Spanish Flu” (caused by an A(H1N1) virus), estimated to have resulted in 20–50 million deaths in 1918–1919. Milder pandemics occurred subsequently in 1957–1958 (the “Asian Flu” caused by an A(H2N2) virus) and in 1968 (the “Hong Kong Flu” caused by an A(H3N2) virus), which were estimated to have caused 1–4 million deaths each.
An influenza pandemic caused by the A(H1N1) virus erupted in the 21st century (2009–2010). For the first time, a pandemic vaccine was developed, produced, and deployed in multiple countries during the first year of the pandemic. The H1N1 pandemic was however milder than the ones before, estimated to cause between 100,000 and 400,000 deaths globally in its first year ().
History of Epidemics in Malaysia
Newspapers in Malaya had as early as September 1918 carried reports of the raging influenza pandemic in South Asia. The only details of the spread of the epidemic were substantially documented from the medical report of the British North Borneo from June to November. The account indicates most possibly the transmission of the influenza virus from the maritime and land routes ferrying passengers and migrant workers from the South China Sea to the rest of the hinterland. This was the Spanish Flu brought in from Europe which resulted in 34,644 deaths among the 3,584,761 population then, giving a fatality rate of almost 1% ().
Over a period of 8 months in 1999, the Nipah virus infected 265 Malaysians and killed 105. Malaysia's response was delayed because it was initially misidentified as Japanese encephalitis. The SARS outbreak of 2003, which infected 8,098 and killed 774 people globally, claimed only two lives in Malaysia. The present COVID-19 was brought into Malaysia by Chinese tourists from Wuhan via Singapore and Malaysian citizens who traveled to high COVID-19–infected countries such as Italy and Indonesia.
Origin of COVID-19
Pneumonia of unknown etiology was detected in Wuhan City, Hubei Province of China on December 31, 2019, whereby, the WHO China Country Office was informed. From December 31, 2019 through January 3, 2020, a total of 44 cases of pneumonia of unknown etiology were reported in China, of which the causal agent was not identified.
On January 7, 2020, the Chinese authorities identified a new type of coronavirus. China shared the genetic sequence of the novel coronavirus for countries to use in developing specific diagnostic kits on January 12, 2020. WHO later received further detailed information from the National Health Commission China on January 11–12, 2020 that the outbreak was associated with exposures in a seafood market in Wuhan City.
On January 13, 2020, the Ministry of Public Health, Thailand reported the first imported case of laboratory-confirmed novel coronavirus case (2019-nCoV) from Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. On January 15, 2020, the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, Japan reported an imported 2019-nCoV from Wuhan.
As of January 20, 2020, a total of 282 confirmed cases of 2019-nCoV have been reported in China (278 cases), Thailand (2 cases), Japan (1 case), and Korea (1 case). Cases in Thailand, Japan, and Korea were exported from Wuhan City, China. Among the 278 confirmed cases in China, 258 cases were reported from Hubei Province, 14 from Guangdong Province, 5 from Beijing Municipality, and 1 from Shanghai Municipality.
On January 30, 2020, WHO declared the outbreak of COVID-19 a public health emergency of international concern. WHO's greatest concern was the potential for the virus to spread to countries with weaker health systems which will be ill-prepared to deal with the outbreak ().
A modeling study published in The Lancet on January 31 estimated that, on average, every infected individual is infecting 2.68 additional individuals (). The specifics of how the virus is transmitted from person to person have also yet to be defined. It is still unknown whether the virus can be spread by the fecal–oral route, for example. The disease pathogenesis is shrouded in mystery. How does the virus replicate in different sites, and how does that relate to the severity of disease?
It was also uncertain how long patients remain infectious. Thus, it is difficult to decide on the period of isolation. There is also the possibility that the virus is mutating into transmissible forms. Older patients with comorbidities seem to be most at risk of developing severe disease as a result of infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Information from China stated that case fatality is around 2%.
Transmission of COVID-19
COVID-19 is largely spread via droplets in the air and is a respiratory illness. These droplets are typically expelled when an infected person coughs or sneezes. They become increasingly less infectious once symptoms develop, so that a person's viral load declines steadily. However, infected persons keep shedding the virus after they recover from COVID-19 for around 2 weeks in both their saliva and stools. Infected persons with mild or no symptom can have a very high viral load in their upper respiratory tracts. They can shed the virus through spitting, touching their mouths, or noses or possibly through talking. SARS-CoV-2 has also been found to persist for days on surfaces ().
Fever, dry cough, and tiredness are the most commonly reported symptoms, and in mild cases people may get just a runny nose or a sore throat. In the most severe cases, infected persons experience breathing difficulty, and ultimately organ failure may develop. Some cases are fatal. The authorities in China have placed the Wuhan population under quarantine or lockdown, and stopped trains and flights out of the city. They have suspended certain long-distance bus routes, including those that depart or arrive in Beijing. On March 11, WHO announced the outbreak to be a pandemic, which means that multiple countries are seeing sustained transmission between people, causing disease or death (Figure 1) ().
Figure 1
COVID-19 Epidemic Progression in Malaysia
First Wave of Outbreak (January 25 to February 15, 22 Cases)
The first three cases of COVID-19 in Malaysia were imported cases, confirmed on January 25, 2020. Imported cases are defined as infection acquired from outside Malaysia with reference to the travel history of the individual case. The three cases were detected on tracing and screening after communication from the Singapore Ministry of Health that eight close contacts of a confirmed case of a Chinese nationality in Singapore had traveled into Johor, Malaysia. By February 15, the number of cases in Malaysia increased to 22, consisting of 12 persons under investigation (PUI), eight close contacts of confirmed cases, and two Malaysian evacuees of humanitarian aid mission from Wuhan, China. Most of the cases in the first wave were imported cases or of Chinese nationality (15 out of 22 cases) and close contacts, while only two cases were of local transmission (
The Guidelines for COVID-19 Management in Malaysia (No. 05/2020) was developed by the Ministry of Health Malaysia in response to the novel virus (
Second Wave of Outbreak (February 27 Onwards, 5,945 Cases by April 29)
The second wave of the outbreak started on February 27, and lasting until the present work was undertaken. From February 27, new cases began to appear as people who had international travel history to countries such as China, Japan, Italy, and Australia started to manifest symptoms. Clusters of cases began to form from the close contacts of confirmed cases who attended meetings and events together, which generated several generations of infections. The number of cases reached a total of 129 on March 10 from among the PUIs, close contacts, and evacuees of humanitarian aid missions.
The Sri Petaling Tabligh Cluster
On March 11, a sporadic COVID-19–positive case was detected among 600 surveillance sampling of patients with influenza-like illness (ILI) and severe acute respiratory infection (SARI). At the same time, the International Health Regulations (IHR) Focal Point (FP) in Brunei informed the IHR FP Malaysia that a COVID-19 case in Brunei had attended a tabligh (Islamic missionary) convention held at Masjid Jamek in Sri Petaling, Kuala Lumpur from February 27 to March 3, 2020. The event was purportedly attended by 14,500 Malaysians who had since gone back to their respective states throughout Malaysia (
Sri Petaling Tabligh became the largest cluster of COVID-19 infection that triggered local transmission across all states in Malaysia (Figure 2) (
Figure 2

Distribution of COVID-19 cases by district in Malaysia as of April 16, 2020. (A) Peninsular Malaysia, (B) island of Borneo, Malaysia (
Figure 3

Disease outbreak response matrix Malaysia (
The Sri Petaling Tabligh cluster generated a number of subclusters especially at Islamic educational institutions (madrasah) in several states. Some of the significant subclusters (cases as of April 29) were at Sungai Lui in Hulu Langat, Selangor (157 cases); Sendayan, Negeri Sembilan (81 cases, 1 death); Jerantut, Pahang (81 cases); Rembau, Negeri Sembilan (53 cases); and Jasin, Melaka (40 cases) (
As of April 29, a total of 33,577 people had been examined, and 32,590 samples had been taken from the Sri Petaling Tabligh cluster. The cluster reported 2,167 cases which represented 6.5% of total samples taken from the cluster, and 36% of the total 5,945 cases in Malaysia. The number of index cases from the cluster was 767 cases, and up to 5 generations chain of transmission among contacts (family members and friends) were traced in the cluster (
The Sri Petaling Cluster came to an end on July 8 (zero active case from the cluster) with the last case being reported on June 11 (
Other Clusters and Case Concentrations
Other clusters of positive cases in Malaysia were formed from local mass gatherings and imported cases of PUIs traveling from oversea countries. In Sarawak, three major clusters were registered: a 3-day church gathering in Kuching recorded 176 cases and three deaths; a PUI from Italy recorded infections among 63 cases with five deaths; and a hospital cluster recorded 56 cases, of which 29 cases (52%) were linked to the church gathering (
In relation to clusters, several areas that reported highly concentrated number of cases had been placed under enhanced Movement Control Order (EMCO) to contain the local transmission rates (
On the other hand, as healthcare workers (HCWs) carry high risks of infection in direct contact with patients, MOH Malaysia reported that most HCWs got infected outside the healthcare settings and not when handling patients (
Third Wave of Outbreak (October 8–Present)
After lowering to a record of between single- and double-digit number of cases from July to September 2020, Malaysia entered the third wave of outbreak in early October with the highest number of cases coming from Sabah (8,082), Selangor (3,357), Kuala Lumpur (2,853), and Kedah (1,940) from September 1 to October 19 (The Star, 2020) (
Infection of Vulnerable Population
Similar to the global situation, the elderly and those with chronic diseases in Malaysia were more vulnerable to the COVID-19 infection (
Figure 4

Number of total deaths (A) and new deaths (B) from March 16 to May 1 in Malaysia. Originally created by the co-author S.C.K.
Detected Mutation of SARS-CoV-2 in Malaysia
One of the notable clusters in the early second wave was the cluster involving the 26th case who had travel history to Shanghai but developed symptoms after a month. As the case had attended several meetings before being aware of the infection, the cluster recorded a total of 121 cases, which was considered as exceptionally infectious compared with the other cases. The Institute for Medical Research later discovered a possible mutation in the virus strain isolated from the 26th case, which might have caused the virus to be more aggressive and contagious (
The COVID-19 disease, which is caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has been suggested to be triggered by spike mutation of the SARS-CoV from bats, which enabled it to infect humans (
Threats and Challenges
The origin of COVID-19 outbreak in Malaysia can be traced back to the first case arriving on Malaysian shores on January 25, 2020, when a passenger from China (en route via Singapore) was tested positive for the virus (
Disease Containment
The MOH spearheads the national outbreak management of this global pandemic as declared by WHO (
The earliest response once the outbreak occurred in Malaysia followed a common standard outbreak management framework emphasizing on thorough case definition formation and case identification process. The MOH distributed the national Guideline on COVID-19 Management aimed in assisting frontliners in every step of management involving COVID-19 cases, including early case detection with clear case definitions used from the outset. The guideline is easily accessible online and has since undergone dynamic editing and updating processes at various points in time as the virus spreads further globally (
Another method of vigorous case identifications and contact tracing involves targeted active cluster identification. Several areas in Peninsular Malaysia for example recorded sharp case increments justifying localized EMCO to these particular areas. These EMCOs imposed strict no in–out movement, aimed ultimately at reducing and breaking disease transmission. Two such areas in Kuala Lumpur were locations swollen with foreign workers, immigrants, refugees, and asylum seekers thriving with their daily life and businesses, many among them considered marginalized and vulnerable (
Federally imposed isolation and quarantine may be deemed radical by some or even draconian by few, yet these measures (isolation and quarantine) have been two of the most successful tools available in fighting outbreaks since the dawn of epidemics (
In terms of treatment, the challenge obviously involves selecting a suitable range of evidence-based medications including repurposed drugs to be used in Malaysia. One specific drug that reached stardom and gained renewed popularity for use in COVID-19 treatment is chloroquine (or its more potent derivative hydroxychloroquine). In the COVID-19 management guideline distributed by the MOH, the use of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine with or without various antiviral medications has been suggested at different clinical stages of the virus (
In the vaccination front, the government looked into several initiatives that may ensure Malaysians will adequately receive successfully developed COVID-19 vaccines from multiple sources worldwide. The government recently pledged their commitment to the global COVID-19 Vaccine Global Access (Covax) partnership, spearheaded by WHO, while also collaborating with the Chinese government, for the procurement of COVID-19 vaccines once they are available (
Threats to the Healthcare System
An important aspect into the ability of nations to combat any new outbreak and one as devastating as COVID-19 is the coping ability of its healthcare system. The whole healthcare system may be stretched thin with improper management and administration. The Malaysian MOH has since the outset prepared for the worst case scenarios and outlined the plan in clear and easily accessible guidelines (
By the end of April 2020, the total tests conducted in Malaysia were estimated to exceed 150,000 with the ratio of about 4,700 tests per million population (
Once cases have been tested positive for the virus, the next challenge stems. The adequacy of designated hospital beds along with its ICU beds and ventilators will come into question. The MOH has prepared several contingency plans looking into different best to worst case scenarios. Early on, the government designated 34 public hospitals as the admitting and treating hospitals for COVID-19 nationwide (
Other inevitable threats to any healthcare system are the adequacy of manpower and sufficiency of PPE supply. These two must go hand in hand because proper management of COVID-19 requires that each healthcare staff involved must be provided with the appropriate level of PPE. In this time of disaster, PPE are valuable assets hoarded and “hijacked” by some leading to huge demand and inadequate supply to others (
Healthcare staff is one of the integral parts in the fight against this virus. As an instrument of the public health system, the healthcare staff serve to protect the health and wellness of the general population. They are the frontliners risking their own safety and health and responsible in activities related to COVID-19. The Ministry mobilizes reinforcements of healthcare workers from states with less COVID-19 cases to states with multiple red zone districts (defined as having 40 active cases or more). MOH has also called on private and retired medical staff to contribute in COVID-19 management nationwide, with a special budget allocated to hire them on contract (
Mitigation Strategy
Movement Control Order
Social quarantine or more popularly known as lockdowns coupled with social distancing has become an almost standard protocol in the control of COVID-19 spread across the world. Lockdown was first implemented in Wuhan, the epidemic epicenter in China, on January 23, 2020. This was soon followed by 15 other cities in Hubei Province, of which Wuhan is its capital, and later by several administrative areas in China. The Wuhan lockdown was only lifted some 2.5 months later on April 8, while in most of Hubei, it was lifted earlier on March 25. Many were concerned of this draconian measure which violated individual rights and were skeptical of its effectiveness. The move, even though commended by WHO, also said that it was beyond its guidelines in epidemic control and was an unprecedented public health measure (
Malaysia took a similar approach when the number of COVID-19 cases started to escalate during the second wave and implemented the MCO. A phase 1 MCO was first initiated for 2 weeks from March 18 to 31, 2020. This was extended another 2 weeks into the phase 2 MCO from April 1 to 14, and subsequently another 2 weeks into the phase 3 MCO from April 15 to 28 and a further 2 weeks into phase 4 MCO from April 29 to May 12. Thus, the total MCO or lockdown period was intended for 8 weeks. However, from May 4 onwards, the MCO was converted to a conditional MCO (CMCO), with respect to the partial opening of the economic sector as announced by the Prime Minister on his Special Labor Day Address on May 1, 2020. The CMCO continued until June 9, after which the recovery MCO (RMCO) was activated from June 10 to August 31. During RMCO, the economic, education, religious, hospitality, and tourism sectors were reopened, but with strict standard operating procedures (SOPs). These include meetings, conventions, exhibitions, and weddings. The international borders, however, remained closed except for approved travel. On August 28, it was announced that the RMCO was extended until December 31, 2020.
Following the Sabah state election on September 26, 2020, resulting in cases of COVID-19 escalating again with a third wave beginning on October 8, the government reinstated a second CMCO in the state of Sabah on October 13 and in Malaysia's most urbanized area, the Klang Valley comprising Kuala Lumpur, Putrajaya, and Selangor, from October 14 onward. The other states in Peninsular Malaysia, with the exception of Perlis, Kelantan, and Pahang, also joined the Klang Valley in the CMCO on November 9. Under the CMCO, cross-district and cross-state travel were again prohibited unless for work and with prior permission from the police; schools and educational institutions were closed; public events like concerts, conventions, and weddings were again prohibited; religious services were limited to a small group; and public premises like bars and theaters were closed.
The MCO in its various forms was enforced through the Prevention and Control of Infectious Diseases Act 1988, whereby, under Section 11(2) of the Act, the Minister of Health may, by regulations made under this Act, prescribe the measures to be taken to control or prevent the spread of any infectious disease within or from an infected local area (
Subsequently, the Prevention and Control of Infectious Diseases (Measures within the Infected Local Areas) Regulations 2020 was gazetted under the Act by the Minister of Health on March 18, 2020 to facilitate the enforcement of the MCO (
There was a slight hitch in the initial implementation of the MCO as it was announced on March 16 to take effect after midnight on March 18. As expected, there were some panicked buying of foods and daily supplies by the population, even though they were told that supermarkets, convenient stores, and restaurants will remain open throughout the MCO. An unexpected event, however, was the exodus of people, especially students from the capital Kuala Lumpur and the surrounding Klang Valley to their homes. Some families also took the opportunity of the 2-week MCO to return to their hometowns across states. This caused congestions at train and bus stations and highways leaving the Klang Valley. Social distancing was ignored, and it is uncertain if the chaos created had resulted in COVID-19 transmission. The government was also worried that the exodus from the Klang Valley might have helped spread the disease to the other parts of Malaysia.
Enhanced Movement Control Order
From March 27, specific locations were subjected to a stricter order called the EMCO. Malaysia employed a targeted approach in tackling the COVID-19 epidemic by first identifying high-risk districts and localities. Districts with no active or cumulative case within a 14-day period are termed as green districts, those with 1 to 20 cumulative cases within 14 days are termed as yellow districts, those with 21 to 40 cumulative cases within 14 days are termed as orange districts, while those with more than 40 cumulative cases within 14 days are termed as red or high risk districts. Within each red district, potentially explosive localities are identified and an EMCO may be enforced in those localities. As of April 23, 2020, seven EMCOs were designated, whereby a total lockdown was enforced with the assistance of the police and armed forces. The EMCO can be enforced on a village, a housing area, a commercial area, or an apartment or a condominium (Figure 5) (93). In an EMCO, all residents are required to remain indoor at all times, a medical base is set up, door-to-door screening of all residents for COVID-19 using the RT-PCR method is conducted, and all business activities in the area are ceased except for essential services. Essential food supplies are provided for free to all residents by the Social Welfare Department, all entry and exit points in the area are guarded, and all food deliveries are allowed to deliver only to a designated area. This strategy proved to be very effective in controlling the spread of COVID-19 cases. In a number of these EMCO areas like the Menara City One, Selangor Mansion, Malayan Mansion, Selayang Baru, and residential areas around the Kuala Lumpur Wholesale Market, they are inhabited by foreigners and migrant workers, some of whom are illegals. A number of index cases from these EMCO areas were from the Sri Petaling Tabligh cluster.
Figure 5

Enhanced movement control order in Malaysia (93). Source: Malay Mail. Permission has been obtained from the copyright holders.
Social Distancing
The Ministry of Health Malaysia defines close contact to a confirmed COVID-19 case as being in social presence of within 1 m from a confirmed case for a duration of not <15 min. Thus, the recommended social distancing for the public is to be apart from each other at a distance of not <1 m. In some countries like the USA and the UK, a social distancing of 2 m is recommended instead. Public Health England (PHE) describes social distancing as steps taken to reduce social interaction between people to reduce the transmission of COVID-19 (94). According to PHE, the objectives of social distancing are more than maintaining the physical distance between persons, which are to
Avoid contact with someone who is displaying symptoms of COVID-19 which include a high temperature and a continuous cough.
Avoid non-essential use of public transport when possible.
Work from home, where and when possible.
Avoid large and small gatherings in public spaces like restaurants, leisure centers, and in closed spaces.
Avoid gatherings with friends and family while keeping in touch using remote technology such as phone, internet, and social media.
Use telephone or online services to contact your general practitioner or other essential services.
Epidemic Progression
On March 23, 2020, the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (MIER) predicted an epidemic peak of 5,070 active COVID-19 cases by April 12, 2020 (Figure 6) (95). This triggered concerns that our healthcare system might be overwhelmed. Thus, efforts were made to increase the number of available hospital beds, for example, the setting up of a temporary medical facility to house mild COVID-19 patients in Serdang, increasing the availability of ICU beds, ordering of medical ventilators, and ordering of personal protective equipment for medical staff.
Figure 6

Projection of epidemic peak by the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (95). Source: Malaysian Institute of Economic Research. Permission has been obtained from the copyright holders.
Flattening the Epidemic Curve
The implementation of the MCO, especially phases 1, 2, and 3, has clearly managed to flatten the epidemic curve. Figure 7 shows the number of daily new COVID-19 cases reported in Malaysia. The number of new cases peaked at 235 on March 26, 2020 (94). Figure 8 gives the number of daily active cases reported in Malaysia (96). Active cases are cases that are still under treatment in hospitals, which is essentially the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases in Malaysia, minus the total number of recovered cases discharged and the total number of deaths. The highest number of active cases reported was 2,596 cases on April 5. This figure is only 51.2% of the 5,070 cases predicted to occur on April 12 by MIER (95). Therefore, the epidemic curve has been flattened by about half of what it should have been if proactive measures like the MCO were not taken by Malaysia. The epidemic peak also occurred a week earlier on April 5 instead of on April 12 as predicted by MIER.
Figure 7

Number of daily new COVID-19 cases reported in Malaysia (96). Source: Worldometers.info. Figure is an open source from the Worldometers.info website.
Figure 8

Number of daily active COVID-19 cases reported in Malaysia (96). Source: Worldometers.info. Figure is an open source from the Worldometers.info website.
Exit Strategy
Many countries in Asia and Europe which have been under lockdowns are now strategizing for an exit strategy to reopen their countries in order to revitalize their economic sector and activities. Austria was one of the earlier European countries to impose a lockdown on March 16, 2020 which has strictly shut down its entire public system and businesses (97). It acted swiftly to close down bars, restaurants, schools, theaters, non-essential shops, and other places of gathering. Austria has since reopened on April 14, 2020 but urged its public to maintain social distancing when in public areas. Three weeks into reopening, it has not seen a new spike in infections (98).
Reopening the Country
WHO announced six conditions a country must acquire before lifting a lockdown (99). These conditions provide justifications for a country to make a decision to lift restrictions on their social and economic activities:
Disease transmission is controlled.
Health system capacities are in place to detect, test, isolate, and treat every case and trace every contact.
Outbreak risks are minimized in special settings like health facilities and nursing homes.
Schools, workplaces, and other essential places have established preventive measures.
The risk of importing new cases can be managed.
Communities are fully educated, engaged, and empowered to live under a new normal.
However, WHO warned that lifting the lockdown too soon and not carefully managing the opening of a country may lead to a resurgence in new COVID-19 cases and undo all the disease containment efforts that has been painstakingly achieved thus far under lockdown (100).
The MOH has envisaged a soft landing for an exit strategy, in which the social and education sectors may have to wait a longer period and the travel ban may continue after MCO is lifted. In line with WHO's recommendations the MOH felt that the following criteria has been met by Malaysia:
The implementation of public movement control to reduce the rate of infection among locals.
Upgraded capacity of healthcare facilities.
Improved ability to care for population at risk, such as the elderly, treated patients, as well as persons with disabilities.
Community empowerment in COVID-19 prevention.
Malaysia's border control has been tightened to prevent the importation of positive COVID-19 cases.
Adoption of the new-normal practices including social distancing and good personal hygiene.
The undesired impact of the MCO or lockdown is its damaging impacts on a country's economy, which may plunge a country into a recession with widespread unemployment. In a Labor Day address to the nation on May 1, 2020, the Malaysian Prime Minister announced that the country loses about RM2.4 billion a day during the MCO period. The total loss has been estimated at around RM63 billion up to the end of April. If the MCO was to continue for another month in May 2020, Malaysia stands to lose another RM35 billion in revenues, accumulating the loss to RM98 billion (101). This is indeed a significant economic impact on a small developing country like Malaysia with limited economic resources. Thus, Malaysia has to carefully plan an exit strategy that will both help to contain the spread of COVID-19 at a manageable level, but at the same time allow its economic sector to restart.
In facing the current economic crisis amid the COVID-19 pandemic, the Malaysian government adopted a strategy that includes six approaches:
A firm action and resolve in controlling the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic by implementing public movement control.
Build an economic resilience through a stimulus package known as PRIHATIN to improve people's economy.
Regenerate or restart the economy on a structured and controlled basis.
Implement economic recovery strategies in facing the new normal.
Strengthen or revitalize the economy for future sustainability.
Restructure or reform the economic foundation to allow the country and its people to migrate into an era of living with the new normal.
Thus, the Prime Minister also announced a reopening of the country's economic and public sectors on May 4. This essentially converted the fourth MCO into what is called a conditional MCO (CMCO). Under CMCO, there are several categories of industries and businesses that are still not permitted to operate. These businesses or activities involve public gatherings and body contact, whereby social distancing will be difficult to maintain.
Businesses and activities that are still not permitted are movie theaters, karaoke centers, reflexology centers, entertainment centers, nightclubs, theme parks, Ramadhan bazaars, public Ramadhan iftar, Aidil Fitri bazaars, carnival sales, all forms of conferences, and exhibitions, social and cultural events (e.g., weddings, concerts, cultural performances), feasts, open houses, public iftar, monthly gatherings at government and private departments, all forms of council inaugurations and assemblies, religious activities (religious parades, Friday prayers, all activities of worshiping or assembling in mosques, prayer houses, and houses of worship), cross-border travel (except for purpose of attending work and returning home after stranded in villages or elsewhere), and cross-state travel to return to villages for Aidil Fitri holiday. Meanwhile, educational activities in schools, colleges, and institutes of higher learning will continue to be conducted remotely. EMCO in designated areas continued to be enforced. Local public movement are no longer restricted to a 10-km distance but must be within a state. Malaysia's international borders remained closed to entering foreigners and exiting Malaysians.
The MOH has set SOPs for the reopening of the economic sector and businesses starting May 4, 2020 (101). These SOPs will emphasize the following considerations:
Social distancing.
Personal hygiene.
Appropriate use of face mask.
Immediate reporting of COVID-19 case to the MOH.
Priority in protecting vulnerable population (infants, children, elderly, and handicapped person).
Sick persons with symptoms to undergo health screening.
Social distancing in public transport.
Promotion of online transactions.
Mass Antibody Testing
Antibody or immunoglobin (IgM and IgG) that are produced in our body's immune system will help to stop foreign viruses from harming our body. Hypothetically, those people who have been exposed to COVID-19 and recovered are expected to develop some level of immunity against the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Therefore, mass antibody testing can be a strategy for countries to detect their population immune response to COVID-19 by specifically looking for antibodies developed against the virus (102).
Several countries mostly in Europe and the USA have started collecting mass antibody data (103). These data would be used as one of the decision-making tools of risk assessment and management for a country to lift its restrictions and open its market. However, WHO has warned countries that there is currently no evidence that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection. Therefore, this perception of an “immunity passport” should be adopted with precaution (104).
Malaysia has also considered conducting random antibody testing in the red zones areas to know the prevalence of infection in the community, especially among infected persons who have not been detected. This antibody testing helps the government to contain the number of sporadic cases in the country (105).
Achieving Herd Immunity
Globally, COVID-19 serological datasets from the patients admitted into the hospital with severe symptoms, whereby most of them develop immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies of symptomatic infection, correlate with the virus disappearance (106). However, currently there are not enough serological datasets from the non-hospitalized people with positive COVID-19 but without symptoms. A country needs to have mass serological dataset of its community to gauge the status of population immunity toward COVID-19. However, with the current level of natural population exposure to this pandemic, the required level of herd immunity is unlikely to be achieved (107). Meanwhile, experts at Johns Hopkins University warned that mass exposure to the virus in the hope of achieving herd immunity could result in increased mortality which could overwhelm the capacity of a country's healthcare system (108). Malaysia does not want to take the risk of allowing for herd immunity as it was unclear and there is lack of evidence that recovered patients may develop immunity (109). Nevertheless, currently Malaysia has no case of COVID-19 reinfection by recovered patients (110).
Vaccination
In fighting the global spread of COVID-19, vaccination would be the best approach to acquire herd immunity against the virus. However, in reality, the world's medical experts still have much to learn about this novel virus, and vaccine would only be available within 1 to 1.5 years. While waiting for the arrival of the vaccine, the MOH urge the public to keep practicing social distancing and maintain good personal hygiene.
Malaysia is also calling for cooperation with other vaccine-producing countries to work together in developing the COVID-19 vaccine, and is willing to share her facilities, data, and resources toward this effort. Malaysia is willing to participate in the clinical trials once the vaccine is made available. Malaysia is considered highly suitable for the human vaccine trials, as Malaysia is a multi-racial country (111).
Conclusion
Even though COVID-19 is a global pandemic, expression of the epidemic may differ from one country to another. This may relate to the virus genetics, vulnerable population characteristics, population's behavior, and the country's response to the crisis. We presented here Malaysia's challenges and response to the epidemic in the hope of sharing our experiences that can be lessons learned for others. Malaysia as a developing country with limited resources faces mounting challenges in responding to the crisis. However, with good cooperation between government agencies and the public, the country managed to overcome the first two waves of the epidemic. Nevertheless, the third wave proved to be more daunting, but is kept under control at the time of writing of this article. Hopefully, Malaysia will be able to keep the epidemic at bay, at least until the arrival of the vaccine.
Statements
Author contributions
ZH has contributed in writing for part 1 - introduction. SK has contributed in writing for part 2 - COVID-19 epidemic progression in Malaysia. MM has contributed in writing for part 3 - threats and challenges. JH has contributed in writing for the abstract and part 4 - mitigation strategy. MA has contributed in writing for part 5 - exit strategy. All authors contributed to the article and approved the submitted version.
Conflict of interest
JH, ZH, and SK were employed by the company Provenue Corporation Sdn Bhd. The remaining authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.
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Summary
Keywords
coronavirus, pandemic, movement control order, Malaysia, COVID-19
Citation
Hashim JH, Adman MA, Hashim Z, Mohd Radi MF and Kwan SC (2021) COVID-19 Epidemic in Malaysia: Epidemic Progression, Challenges, and Response. Front. Public Health 9:560592. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2021.560592
Received
09 May 2020
Accepted
25 February 2021
Published
07 May 2021
Volume
9 - 2021
Edited by
Zisis Kozlakidis, International Agency For Research On Cancer (IARC), France
Reviewed by
Mori Kogid, Universiti Malaysia Sabah, Malaysia; Julie Roux, International Agency For Research On Cancer (IARC), France
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Copyright
© 2021 Hashim, Adman, Hashim, Mohd Radi and Kwan.
This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
*Correspondence: Mohammad Adam Adman adamadman@ump.edu.my
This article was submitted to Infectious Diseases - Surveillance, Prevention and Treatment, a section of the journal Frontiers in Public Health
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