Deep Learning Analysis of Long COVID and Vaccine Impact in low-and middleincome countries (LMICs): Development of a Risk Calculator in a Multicentric Study

Ahmed Shaheen¹Nour Shaheen^1*Sheikh Shoib²Fahimeh Saeed²Mudathiru Buhari³Vishal Bharmauria³Oliver Flouty³

• ¹Alexandria University, Alexandria, Egypt
• ²Center for Psychosis Research, University of Social Welfare and Rehabilitation Sciences, Tehran, Alborz, Iran
• ³University of South Florida, Tampa, Florida, United States

Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 , caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), is a global pandemic affecting millions worldwide. This study aims to bridge the knowledge gap between acute and chronic symptoms, vaccination impact, and associated factors in patients across different low-and middle-income countries (LMICs).The study included 2445 participants aged 18 years and older, testing positive for COVID-19. Data collection involved screening for medical histories, testing records, symptomatology, and persistent symptoms. Validated instruments, including the DePaul Symptom Questionnaire (DSQ-2) and the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9), were used. We applied a self-supervised and unsupervised deep neural network to extract features from the questionnaire. Gradient boosted machines (GBM) model was used to build a risk calculator for chronic fatigue, depression, and prolonged COVID-19 symptoms.Results: Out of the study cohort, 68.1% of the patients had symptoms lasting longer than two weeks. The most frequent symptoms were loss of smell (46.8%), dry cough (40.1%), loss of taste (37.8%), headaches (37.2%), and sore throat (28.9%). The patients also reported high rates of depression (47.7%), chronic fatigue (6.5%), and infection after vaccination (23.7%). Factors associated with CFS included sex, age, and smoking. Vaccinated individuals demonstrated lower odds of experiencing prolonged COVID-19 symptoms, CFS, and depression. The predictive models achieved a high area under the curve (AUC) scores of 0.87, 0.82, and 0.74, respectively.The findings underscore the significant burden of long-term symptoms such as chronic fatigue and depression, affecting a considerable proportion of individuals post-infection. Moreover, the study reveals promising insights into the potential benefits of vaccination in mitigating the risk of prolonged COVID-19 symptoms, chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS), and depression. Overall, this research contributes valuable knowledge towards comprehensive management and prevention efforts amidst the ongoing global pandemic.