ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Public Health
Sec. Aging and Public Health
Volume 13 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1506748
This article is part of the Research TopicHealth Policy Approaches to Chronic Disease ManagementView all 4 articles
A Trend Analysis of the Burden of Lower Extremity Peripheral Arterial Disease in China, 1990 to 2021: Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Provisionally accepted
- First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China
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The present study provides a thorough trend analysis of the burden of lower extremity peripheral arterial disease (PAD) in China during 1990 -2021, based on data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lower extremity PAD is an atherosclerotic disease that causes obstruction of blood vessels supplying the legs, presenting as intermittent claudication, rest pain, non -healing wounds, ulcers, or gangrene, and may lead to limb amputation or death due to critical limb ischemia. Our analysis covers prevalence, incidence, mortality, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability -adjusted life years (DALYs).A key finding of this study is from the Age -period -cohort (APC) analysis. It shows that age and period effects are risk factors for the incidence and mortality of PAD, while birth cohort effects have a protective role. Additionally, projections using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model indicate that the risk of death from PAD will increase for males in the future.Through Joinpoint regression analysis, we delineate the temporal trends. Considering China's aging population, the growing disease burden from economic progress, and the rapidly changing healthcare landscape, these findings highlight the escalating challenge of PAD. The study's predictions serve as a warning of the continued rise in PAD incidence and emphasize the urgent need for public health interventions to address the increasing burden.
Keywords: GBD, PAD, China, burden of disease, ARIMA
Received: 06 Oct 2024; Accepted: 09 Jun 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Chen, Zhang, Huang, Hao, Wang, Liu, Xiao and Den. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Huisheng Den, First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China
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