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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Public Health

Sec. Children and Health

Volume 13 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1511050

Global Trends and Future Predictions of Gastrointestinal Ulcers in Youth

Provisionally accepted
Kun HeKun He1Shicai YeShicai Ye2Yanqi KouYanqi Kou3Du ShenshenDu Shenshen4Weinan YuanWeinan Yuan1Lei GeLei Ge2Yuan TianYuan Tian2Botao LuoBotao Luo2Yanping HaYanping Ha2Liping ZhanLiping Zhan2Ruyin YeRuyin Ye2Yujie HuangYujie Huang2Bingbing LiBingbing Li1Biao NieBiao Nie1*Yuping YangYuping Yang2*
  • 1First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University, Guangzhou, Guangdong Province, China
  • 2Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University, Zhanjiang, Guangdong Province, China
  • 3The First Affiliated Hospital of Henan University of Science and Technology, Luoyang, Henan Province, China
  • 4Henan University of Science and Technology, Luoyang, Henan Province, China

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Background By analyzing past disease trends and comparing two time series statistical models, we can predict the global burden of gastrointestinal ulcers in specific populations of adolescents and young adults aged 10-24. This prediction can provide important references for optimizing prevention and control strategies in healthcare systems. Methods We collected data on prevalence, incidence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and mortality for specific age groups between 10 and 24 years from 1990 to 2019. The data were then stratified by age, gender, and economic development level. We applied decomposition analysis and frontier analysis, and compared the performance of two statistical prediction models. We used the bestperforming model to predict changes in each indicator.

Keywords: Gastrointestinal ulcers, Global burden, Age-standardized rates, ARIMA model, DALYs

Received: 18 Oct 2024; Accepted: 30 Jun 2025.

Copyright: © 2025 He, Ye, Kou, Shenshen, Yuan, Ge, Tian, Luo, Ha, Zhan, Ye, Huang, Li, Nie and Yang. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

* Correspondence:
Biao Nie, First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University, Guangzhou, 510630, Guangdong Province, China
Yuping Yang, Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University, Zhanjiang, Guangdong Province, China

Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.

Supplementary Material