ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Public Health
Sec. Injury Prevention and Control
Volume 13 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1566421
The incidence, prevalence, and health burden of Forearm fractures in China from 1992 to 2021 and forecasts for 2036
Provisionally accepted
- Zhongshan Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine Affiliated to Guangzhou University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Zhongshan, China
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Forearm fractures (Fracture of radius and/or ulna) are common worldwide and constitute a significant public-health burden. There is limited epidemiological data on radius and/or ulna fractures in the Chinese population. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study, this research reports the epidemiology and disease burden of forearm fractures in China, as well as projected trends for the next 15 years.Data on the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for Fractures of the radius and ulna in mainland China from 1992 to 2021 were obtained from the 2021 GBD database. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to analyze epidemiological trends in incidence, prevalence, and age-standardized rates (ASIR, ASPR, ASYR) over the period from 1992 to 2021. The Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model was employed to project trends in incidence and YLDs for radius and/or ulna fractures in mainland China from 2022 to 2036.In 2021, there were 5,790,636 radius and/or ulna fractures in China, with 2,724,178 in males and 3,066,459 in females. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) for radius and/or ulna fractures was 404.52 per 100,000, with 375.83 in males and 430.87 in females. The agestandardized years of disability (ASYR) was 2.55 years per 100,000, with 2.22 years in males and 2.82 years in females. From 1990 to 2021, both the ASIR and ASYR increased, with an average annual percent change (EAPC) of 0.09. The incidence of radius and/or ulna fractures
Keywords: forearm fractures, China, Incidence, Years lived with disability, Prevalence, GBD
Received: 24 Jan 2025; Accepted: 31 May 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Zeng, Hu, Zhang, Chen, Luan, Wu and Zheng. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Chengxiao Zheng, Zhongshan Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine Affiliated to Guangzhou University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Zhongshan, China
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