The influence of meteorological factors on the transmission of respiratory viruses in the hot arid climate conditions experienced in Qatar

May Husein^1,2Salma Younes³Muthanna Samara⁴M rami Alfarra⁵Abdullatif AlKhal^2,6Munna AlMaslamani^2,6Gheyath K Nasrallah^3,7Einas AlKuwari^1,2Ali Alkinani^8,9Peter V Coyle^1,2Nader ALDEWIK^10,2*

• ¹Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology, Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
• ²Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
• ³Department of Biomedical Sciences, College of Health Sciences, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
• ⁴Kingston Business School, Faculty of Business and Social Sciences, Kingston University, Kingston upon Thames, England, United Kingdom
• ⁵Qatar Environment and Energy Research Institute, Hamad bin Khalifa University, Doha, Qatar
• ⁶Communicable Disease Center, Hamad General Hospital, Doha, Qatar
• ⁷Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
• ⁸Department of Pharmacy, Faculty of Science, Engineering and Computing, Kingston University, Kingston upon Thames, England, United Kingdom
• ⁹Kingston University, Kingston upon Thames, England, United Kingdom
• ¹⁰Interim Translational Research Institute, Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar

Background: The association between meteorological parameters and viral transmission in temperate and subtropical arid climates is not fully understood. The climate in Qatar reaches extremes of heat and humidity but retains a similar pattern of transmission of respiratory viruses as in temperate climates. Gap Statement: The need for a better understanding of the demographic and meteorological factors that drive the transmission of respiratory viruses in the community.Aim: To evaluate the relationship between meteorological and demographic factors on the transmission of 18 respiratory viruses in the State of Qatar.Materials and Methods: In total, 355948 nasopharyngeal swabs were tested for respiratory viruses from 31-Dec-2018 to 29-Dec-2019. The study involved 18 viruses, of which only 8 viruses were included in the analysis: ADV, hBoV, Flu-A, Flu-B, hPIV3, hMPV, HRV, and RSV. Respiratory virus prevalence was compared with local meteorological data including outdoor air temperature; dew point; wind speed; atmospheric pressure; relative humidity; solar radiation, and demographic factors, including age, gender, and nationality. Results: Transmission waves were seen for ADV, hBoV, Flu-A, Flu-B, hMPV, HRV and RSV but not with hPIV-3. Wind speed, air temperature, relative humidity, and solar radiation were significantly associated with Flu-A, Flu-B, hMPV, and RSV, which showed clear seasonality, but not with HRV, hBoV, and ADV, which had atypical seasonality and hPIV-3, which had no seasonality. Incidental associations could not be excluded and would need to be confirmed through multiple seasons. School age was the most significant demographic.Conclusion: Young children, rather than meteorological factors, served as the primary determinant of viral transmission. The proximity of 3 large viral waves to school reopening after the summer break suggested school transmission is an important contributor. The significant association of meteorological factors with viral transmission increased the risk further, reflecting the period of the year of maximum transmission. This was seen with as viruses with a clear seasonality but not with viruses with atypical or absent seasonality.