ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Public Health
Sec. Environmental Health and Exposome
Volume 13 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1573599
This article is part of the Research TopicImpact of Environmental Factors on the Health of Children and Older AdultsView all 11 articles
Global, regional and national Burden of IHD Attributable to PM pollution Aged 70 and Above: An age-period-cohort modeling and Frontiers analysis study
Provisionally accepted
- 1The Quzhou Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Quzhou People's Hospital, Quzhou, China
- 2Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, China
- 3Second Affiliated Hospital, Xuzhou Medical University, Xuzhou, Jiangsu Province, China
- 4Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian Province, China
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Background: Particulate matter (PM) pollution is a significant risk factor for ischemic heart disease (IHD). This study evaluates the global, regional, and national burden of IHD attributable to PM pollution from 1990 to 2021, quantifies key contributing factors, and projects trends to 2044, with a focus on regional disparities and population aging.Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study, we analyzed trends in IHD-related disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and mortality attributable to PM pollution. Joinpoint regression assessed long-term trends, Age-Period-Cohort modeling evaluated demographic drivers, and decomposition analysis identified the contributions of population growth, aging, and epidemiological changes. Frontier analysis compared observed DALY rates with the lowest achievable rates based on socio-demographic index (SDI). Future trends were projected using the Nordpred model. Results: From 1990 to 2021, global age-standardized DALY rates for IHD attributable to PM pollution decreased by -1.51% annually, but absolute DALYs increased due to population aging and growth. High SDI regions saw significant declines in DALY rates (-4.75% annually), while Low SDI regions experienced negligible change (0.01%). Population growth contributed to a 183.57% increase in global DALYs, but epidemiological improvements reduced the burden by 89.29%. Frontier analysis revealed substantial unrealized potential for reducing the IHD burden, particularly in Middle SDI regions. Projections to 2044 indicate that while DALY rates will decline, total DALYs will increase among individuals aged over 70, especially in Low and Low-middle SDI regions.This study highlights substantial progress in reducing the IHD burden attributable to PM pollution, particularly in High SDI regions. However, disparities remain, especially in Low and Lowmiddle SDI regions, where the aging population and insufficient healthcare infrastructure exacerbate the burden. The rising IHD burden among the elderly underscores the need for targeted interventions, including stricter air quality regulations, enhanced healthcare access, and policies that specifically address vulnerable populations. Strengthening healthcare systems and air pollution controls in these regions is critical to mitigating the growing IHD burden in the coming decades.
Keywords: Ischemic Heart Disease, Global burden of disease, Particulate matter pollution, disabilityadjusted life years (DALYs), Age-period-cohort, socio-demographic index
Received: 09 Feb 2025; Accepted: 12 May 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 He, Wang, Liu, Yang and Gong. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Ke‐Jie He, The Quzhou Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Quzhou People's Hospital, Quzhou, China
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