ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Public Health
Sec. Infectious Diseases: Epidemiology and Prevention
Volume 13 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1578658
Global burden and trend of tuberculosis in children and adolescents (under 15 years old) from 1990 to 2021, with projections to 2040
Provisionally accepted
- 1Jiangmen Central Hospital, Jiangmen, Guangdong, China
- 2Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi Province, China
- 3Changzhi Medical College, Changzhi, Shanxi Province, China
- 4Heping Hospital Affiliated to Changzhi Medical College, Changzhi, Shanxi Province, China
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Background: Tuberculosis (TB) remains a significant global health issue, but its burden among children and adolescents under 15 years old is not well quantified. This study evaluates TB trends in this age group from 1990 to 2021 and projects future trends through 2040.We used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021 to assess the incidence and mortality of TB in children and adolescents (under 15) from 1990 to 2021. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was employed to project the TB burden.Results: In 2021, there were 799,047 new TB cases and 81,870 TB-related deaths among children, with an age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of 40.01 per 100,000 population and an age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of 4.16 per 100,000 population. From 1990 to 2021, the ASIR declined by 2.4% annually, while ASMR decreased by 4.19% per year. However, drug-resistant TB, especially extensively drug-resistant TB, increased significantly. The burden was highest in low-SDI regions, particularly among children under 5, who accounted for over 75% of TB-related deaths. Projections to 2040 indicate continued declines in ASIR and ASMR for all TB forms, including drug-resistant and TB-HIV co-infections.Conclusions: Sustained investment in TB control programs, particularly in low-SDI regions, is crucial. Addressing drug-resistant TB and TB-HIV co-infection should be prioritized in global public health strategies.
Keywords: Global burden of disease, Tuberculosis, Children and adolescents, agestandardized rate, estimated annual percentage change
Received: 18 Feb 2025; Accepted: 10 Jun 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Liang, Wang, Yang, Liu and He. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Yuanhao Liang, Jiangmen Central Hospital, Jiangmen, 529030, Guangdong, China
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