ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Public Health
Sec. Infectious Diseases: Epidemiology and Prevention
Volume 13 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1580265
Epidemiological Characteristics and Spatial Clustering Analysis of Human Brucellosis in Zibo City, Shandong Province, China, 2006-2024
Provisionally accepted
- Zibo Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Zibo, China
Select one of your emails
You have multiple emails registered with Frontiers:
Notify me on publication
Please enter your email address:
If you already have an account, please login
You don't have a Frontiers account ? You can register here
Background: The significant rise in human brucellosis incidence is a serious public health issue in Zibo City. However, its temporal and spatial distribution has not been thoroughly investigated. Objective: This study aims to describe the demographic, temporal, and spatial distribution patterns and clustering characteristics of human brucellosis cases in Zibo City from 2006 to 2024, in order to develop and implement effective scientific prevention and control strategies. Methods: Case data were obtained from the Infectious Disease Surveillance System of the Chinese Disease Control and Prevention Information System. The epidemiological characteristics and spatial aggregation of human brucellosis were analyzed using descriptive analysis and spatial autocorrelation analysis. The incidence of brucellosis in 2025 was predicted using an ARIMA model.Results: Data on human brucellosis cases in Zibo City from 2006 to 2024 were obtained from the national infectious disease reporting information management system. Spatial autocorrelation analysis and temporal-spatial scan statistics were used to identify potential changes in the temporal-spatial distribution of human brucellosis in Zibo City. From 2006 to 2021, a total of 2,176 brucellosis cases were reported in Zibo City, with an average annual incidence rate of 2.50 per 100,000. Middle-aged and elderly populations (aged 35–74 years) were the primary affected groups, accounting for 86.76% (1,888/2,176) of all reported cases. The incidence of brucellosis in Zibo City showed a long-term upward trend and exhibited significant seasonal variations, with peaks occurring between March and September each year. From 2006 to 2024, the incidence gradually expanded from the northern and central regions to the southern regions. Global spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed a positive correlation in brucellosis incidence between 2009 and 2012–2024. Spatiotemporal cluster analysis identified a primary cluster in the high-incidence areas of northern Zibo City, with four secondary clusters appearing in areas where brucellosis outbreaks had previously occurred. According to ARIMA model predictions, the monthly incidence rate of brucellosis in Zibo City has declined steadily from 0.75/100,000 in 2010 to near-zero levels by 2020 and is projected to remain extremely low through 2025.
Keywords: Epidemiological characteristics, spatial clustering analysis, Human brucellosis, seasonal, global spatial autocorrelation, Temporal-spatial aggregation
Received: 20 Feb 2025; Accepted: 30 May 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Zhao, Sun and Zhang. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Feng Zhang, Zibo Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Zibo, China
Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.