ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Public Health
Sec. Aging and Public Health
Volume 13 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1582618
This article is part of the Research TopicIntegrated Strategies for Lifelong Health: Multidimensional Approaches to Aging and Lifestyle InterventionsView all 21 articles
Burden, trends, and predictions of five major musculoskeletal disorders in China, Japan, and South Korea: analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Provisionally accepted
- 1Neck, Shoulder, Lumbar and Leg Pain Hospital, Shandong First Medical University, Jinan, China
- 2College of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Shandong University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Jinan, China, Jinan, China
- 3Acupuncture and Moxibustion Department, Affiliated Hospital of Shandong University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Jinan, China, Jinan, China
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Background Musculoskeletal disorders impose a heavy burden on society and the healthcare system. This study aims to describe the temporal trends of the burden of the top five musculoskeletal disorders in China, Japan and South Korea, assess their age, period and cohort effects, and predict the disease burden over the next 15 years.Methods The study utilized the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 data. Key result metrics include the incidence, prevalence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of gout, osteoarthritis, low back pain, neck pain and rheumatoid arthritis. Applying Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort (APC) models to analyze temporal trends of five major musculoskeletal diseases from 1990 to 2021, considering age, period, and cohort effects. Future burden from 2022 to 2036 was forecasted using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model.Results From 1990 to 2021, the incidence of gout and osteoarthritis in China increased by 160.5% and 150.4%, respectively, with Japan's gout incidence up by 65.3% and South Korea's gout and rheumatoid arthritis rates rising by 165.0% and 164.6%. The burden of these diseases, except for gout, was higher in female. The risk of musculoskeletal diseases increases with age and recent birth cohorts. The impact of high body mass index (BMI) on gout, low back pain, and osteoarthritis is escalating. By 2036, the disease burden is expected to remain heavy, with varying degrees of increase. Conclusions The burden of the five musculoskeletal diseases in China, Japan, and South Korea is significant. There is a particular need to pay close attention to the increasingly severe impact of elderly female populations and high BMI on gout, low back pain, and osteoarthritis. It is recommended that governments increase investment and implement prevention strategies, including weight management and health education.
Keywords: Age-Period-Cohort analysis, ARIMA model, Rheumatoid arthritis, Osteoarthritis, disease burden, Joinpoint regression, High BMI
Received: 24 Feb 2025; Accepted: 26 May 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Yin, Deng, Ma, Fu, Yin, Jia and Liu. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Fanjie Liu, Neck, Shoulder, Lumbar and Leg Pain Hospital, Shandong First Medical University, Jinan, China
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