ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Public Health
Sec. Aging and Public Health
Volume 13 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1586497
This article is part of the Research TopicStrategies to Improve Awareness and Management of Cancer Risk Factors and ScreeningsView all 3 articles
Breast Cancer Burden (1990-2040) in Individuals Aged 55 and Above: A GBD 2021 Analysis of Global Trends, Sex-Specific Risk Factors, and Intervention Impact
Provisionally accepted
- 1Breast Center, Department of General Surgery, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
- 2State Key Laboratory of Ophthalmology, Zhongshan Ophthalmic Center, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
Select one of your emails
You have multiple emails registered with Frontiers:
Notify me on publication
Please enter your email address:
If you already have an account, please login
You don't have a Frontiers account ? You can register here
Background: Breast cancer remains a leading cause of death among women, with incidence and mortality rates sharply increasing with age, particularly in individuals aged 55 and above. This study provides a comprehensive assessment of the global breast cancer burden in this high-risk demographic.: Utilizing Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study data, we analyzed breast cancer incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for individuals aged 55 and older from 1990 to 2021. Temporal trends were quantified using age-standardized rates (ASRs) and Estimated Annual Percentage Changes (EAPCs). Population Attributable Fractions (PAFs) delineated sex-specific contributions of modifiable risk factors. A Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model projected the future burden to 2040, rigorously validated by sensitivity analysis. Crucially, an evidence-based scenario analysis was employed to model the potential impact of various public health interventions.Results: Globally, absolute breast cancer cases and deaths in the 55+ population significantly increased , despite a modest decline in the age-standardized mortality rate. Profound disparities emerged across Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) regions, with low-to-middle SDI regions experiencing sharp increases in incidence and mortality, contrasting with declining standardized mortality in high-SDI regions. Risk factor analysis revealed distinct sex-specific profiles: female DALY burden was predominantly driven by metabolic risks (e.g., high BMI), while male burden was overwhelmingly attributable to high alcohol consumption. Baseline projections to 2040 suggest rate stabilization; however, scenario analysis demonstrated high malleability: enhanced screening could avert millions of cases, whereas pessimistic scenarios (e.g., COVID-19 pandemic disruptions) could reverse current progress.The breast cancer burden in the aging population is substantial and increasingly concentrated in developing regions. The distinct risk profiles between sexes, combined with the profound potential of targeted interventions, underscore the urgent need for tailored, proactive, and resource-stratified public health strategies to mitigate the projected global burden.
Keywords: breast cancer, Middle-aged and elderly people, Global burden of disease, Scenario analysis, aging population and health care, EAPC, BAPC prediction model
Received: 03 Mar 2025; Accepted: 21 Jul 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Jian, Tang and Yao. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence:
Yuewen Tang, State Key Laboratory of Ophthalmology, Zhongshan Ophthalmic Center, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
Guangyu Yao, Breast Center, Department of General Surgery, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.