ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Public Health
Sec. Environmental Health and Exposome
Volume 13 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1593346
Diverging Trends in the Global Burden of Ischemic Heart Disease Attributable to non-optimal temperatures: A historical Analysis (1990-2021) and 2050 Projections
Provisionally accepted
- 1School of Medicine and Health, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
- 2Yueqing People's Hospital, Yueqing, Zhejiang Province, China
- 3First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang Province, China
- 4Munich Medical Research School,Lidwig-Maximilians University Munich, Munich, Germany
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Background This study aimed to comprehensively evaluate the global burden of temperature-related ischemic heart disease from 1990 to 2021, analyzing the temporal trends and regional disparities stratified by socioeconomic development levels. Furthermore, we identified high-risk populations and mapped the trajectory of disease burden up to 2050 to generate data that will inform the establishment of evidence-based public health interventions and climate adaptation strategies. Methods A comprehensive analysis was conducted on data derived from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021) to determine the impact of temperature-related ischemic heart disease burden in 204 countries and territories. Primary outcome measures included absolute mortality counts, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs). In addition, temporal trend analysis was conducted using joinpoint regression to identify significant inflection points and calculate the annual percent change (APC) estimates. The future landscape of changes in mortality up to 2050 was predicted using the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) modeling approach, while accounting for age-specific, period-specific, and birth cohort effects. Socioeconomic stratification was performed using the Sociodemographic Index (SDI) quintiles to compare and characterize the variations in the disease burden across development levels. Data uncertainty was quantified using Monte Carlo simulation methods, and the results were expressed as point estimates and their corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UI) to ensure robust statistical inference. Results In 2021, high temperatures caused 112,389 IHD deaths globally—a 345.0% increase from 1990—with an ASMR rise of 1.34 per 10,000 and EAPC of 1.67. Males had 41.6% higher mortality risk than females. Low temperatures led to 505,298 deaths (a 64.4% increase), but ASMRs declined by 36.9% (EAPC: -2.61). Regions with low-to-middle SDI bore 75.0% of the high-temperature-related burden. Projections to 2050 indicate rising ASMRs due to high temperatures, while rates related to low temperatures are expected to decline. Conclusion Non-optimal temperatures have varying impacts on IHD. Climate change exacerbates high-temperature risks, particularly in disadvantaged regions, emphasizing the need for targeted interventions, improved infrastructure, and climate-health equity policies.
Keywords: Non-optimal temperatures, Ischemic Heart Disease, Global Burden of Disease study, Mortality, DALYs
Received: 13 Mar 2025; Accepted: 14 Jul 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Jin, Pang, Huang, Liu, Zhan and Wang. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Kangwei Wang, Yueqing People's Hospital, Yueqing, Zhejiang Province, China
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