ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Public Health
Sec. Aging and Public Health
Volume 13 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1599656
This article is part of the Research TopicChallenges and Innovations in Healthcare Management and Long-Term Care for an Aging SocietyView all 12 articles
Analysis of the dynamic correlation between chronic comorbidities and health shocks among middle-aged and elderly people in rural mountainous areas of Southern Ningxia-from 14 years of follow-up panel data
Provisionally accepted
- School of Public Health, Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan, China; Key Laboratory of Environmental Factors and Chronic Disease Control, Yinchuan, China., Yinchuan, China
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Background With the acceleration of the aging process, the health shock on the middle-aged and elderly people has become a key issue that urgently needs to be solved. Health shock refers to the long-term fluctuating effect on the future level of family health welfare due to the uncertainty of the health status of family members in the short term. Chronic comorbidity is an important factor affecting the occurrence of health shocks in the middle-aged and elderly people. The purpose of this study was to explore the developmental trajectories and interactions of chronic comorbidities and health shocks in rural residents in the southern mountainous areas of Ningxia. Methods On the basis of health follow-up data from rural middle-aged and elderly people in Ningxia in 2009, 2015, 2019 and 2022, the dynamic associations between chronic comorbidities and health shocks in rural residents in mountainous areas of southern Ningxia were analyzed via the latent growth model (LGM) and cross-lagged model (CLM).Results The unconditional latent growth model (ULGM) revealed that chronic comorbidities and health shocks are increasing in the 14-year period from 2009-2022. The parallel latent growth model (PLGM) revealed that the initial level of health shock had a significant positive predictive effect on both the initial level and change rate of chronic comorbidities. The change rate of health shocks had a significant positive predictive effect on the initial level of chronic comorbidities and a relatively negative predictive effect on the change rate of chronic comorbidities. The initial level of chronic comorbidities had a significant positive predictive effect on the initial level of health shock and a significant negative predictive effect on the change rate of health shock. The cross-lagged model(CLM) indicate a bidirectional causal association between chronic comorbidities and health shocks.Conclusions This research found that both chronic comorbidities and health shocks were on the rise, and there was a dynamic interaction and bidirectional causal relationship between the two. It is recommended to strengthen the monitoring of chronic comorbidities to reduce the occurrence of health shocks. Thereby promoting the implementation of healthy aging.
Keywords: Chronic Comorbidities, Health shocks, Dynamic correlation, Middle-aged and elderly people, developmental trajectory
Received: 25 Mar 2025; Accepted: 09 Jun 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Yang, Liu, Li, Meng, Qiao and Xie. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence:
Hui Qiao, School of Public Health, Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan, China; Key Laboratory of Environmental Factors and Chronic Disease Control, Yinchuan, China., Yinchuan, China
Yongxin Xie, School of Public Health, Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan, China; Key Laboratory of Environmental Factors and Chronic Disease Control, Yinchuan, China., Yinchuan, China
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