ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Public Health
Sec. Infectious Diseases: Epidemiology and Prevention
Volume 13 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1604018
Spatial analysis and prediction of psittacosis in Zhejiang Province, China, 2019-2024
Provisionally accepted
- Zhejiang Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Zhejiang CDC), Hangzhou, China
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Background: The emergence of advanced diagnostic techniques and improved disease surveillance have led to increased recognition of psittacosis cases in recent years. This study aimed to characterize the epidemiological patterns and spatiotemporal distribution of psittacosis in Zhejiang Province, China, and to identify high-risk clusters through predictive modeling.Methods: We conducted a comprehensive analysis of reported psittacosis cases in Zhejiang Province from January 2019 to June 2024. Demographic characteristics and seasonal trends were systematically analyzed. Spatial epidemiological methods, including spatiotemporal distribution mapping, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and Kriging interpolation, were employed to identify disease hotspots and predict risk areas.Results: During the study period, 315 psittacosis cases were reported, with an annual average incidence rate of 0.0914 per 100,000 population, showing a significant increasing trend. The geographic distribution of cases expanded over time. More cases were reported in winter. Cases demonstrated a male predominance (sex ratio 1.1:1) with a median age of 64 years. Occupational analysis revealed farmers as the most affected group (52.4%). Spatial analysis identified significant clustering (Moran's I = 0.5428, P<0.001), with high-incidence areas concentrated in western and central regions. Kriging interpolation predicted the highest disease risk in western Zhejiang, followed by central, southwestern and parts of northern regions. Western and southwestern regions had high risks of cluster.Conclusions: Our findings demonstrate a concerning upward trend in psittacosis incidence with expanding geographic distribution in Zhejiang Province. The identification of high-risk clusters in western, central, and northern regions provides critical evidence for targeted public health interventions, including enhanced surveillance in agricultural communities and seasonal prevention campaigns during winter months.
Keywords: Psittacosis, Epidemiological characteristics, spatial analysis, Kriging interpolation, Prediction map
Received: 01 Apr 2025; Accepted: 12 Jun 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Ding, Wu, WU, Liu, Lu, Wang, Fu, Li and Lin. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence:
Haocheng Wu, Zhejiang Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Zhejiang CDC), Hangzhou, China
Junfen Lin, Zhejiang Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Zhejiang CDC), Hangzhou, China
Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.