ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Public Health
Sec. Environmental Health and Exposome
Volume 13 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1605624
This article is part of the Research TopicClimate Change, Air Pollution, and Health Inequality: Vulnerability of Marginalized PopulationsView all 19 articles
Comparative Global Burden of Ischemic Heart Disease and Myocardial Disease Attributable to Non-Optimal Temperatures, 1990–2021: An Analysis Based on GBD 2021
Provisionally accepted
- 1The Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University, Qingdao, Shandong Province, China
- 2Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang, Shandong Province, China
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Objectives: To compare the global burden of myocardial disease (MD) and ischemic heart disease (IHD) attributable to high and low temperatures, and to examine demographic and socio-economic disparities over time.Methods: We analyzed disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and mortality for MD and IHD attributable to high and low temperatures, stratified by sex, age, region, and socio-demographic index (SDI). Decomposition analysis quantified the contributions of population growth, aging, and epidemiological changes. Projections were generated using an age-period-cohort model.Results: Between 1990 and 2021, high temperature-related MD and IHD burdens increased (EAPC: +1.26% and +1.68%, respectively), whereas low temperature burdens declined (EAPC: -1.87% and -1.73%) but remained considerably higher overall. MD disproportionately affected children under five and adults over 80, while IHD rarely appeared under 30 yet rose markedly from midlife onward. Heat-related MD and IHD burdens rose with SDI < 0.5 and declined above 0.5; cold-related burdens decreased consistently above SDI 0.75 but varied irregularly below this threshold. Central Asia exhibited the greatest heat-and cold-related burdens for both MD and IHD, whereas North Africa and the Middle East were particularly susceptible to heat. Population growth primarily fueled heat-related burdens, whereas cold-related burdens were more driven by aging and population change. Projections to 2040 indicate continuing increases in heat-related burdens, potentially exacerbating health disparities. Conclusions: Heat-attributable IHD is the fastest-growing threat, while MD remains critical for very young and elderly populations under extremes temperature. Disparities across age, SDI, and geography highlight the urgency for targeted interventions.
Keywords: Myocardial disease, Ischemic Heart Disease, Extreme temperatures, GBD, DALYs, Mortality
Received: 03 Apr 2025; Accepted: 28 Jul 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Guo, Lian, Xia, Wang, Xin, Zhou and Li. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Mengqi Guo, The Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University, Qingdao, 266000, Shandong Province, China
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