ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Public Health
Sec. Injury Prevention and Control
Volume 13 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1608351
Global Burden of Alcoholic Cardiomyopathy in Middle-Aged Men (1990-2021) and Projections to 2050: A Systematic Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease 2021 Data
Provisionally accepted
- Department of Cardiology, Zhongda Hospital, School of Medicine, Southeast University, Nanjing, China
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Objective: Alcoholic cardiomyopathy (ACM) is a severe cardiovascular condition caused by chronic excessive alcohol consumption, leading to heart failure, increased morbidity, and mortality. This study aimed to comprehensively analyze the global burden of ACM among middle-aged males from 1990 to 2021 using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data. Additionally, we projected future trends until 2050 using time-series forecasting models.We extracted ACM-related mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and years of life lost (YLLs) from the GBD 2021 dataset across 204 countries and territories. Temporal trends were assessed using estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Regional clustering was performed using hierarchical analysis. Future projections were estimated using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Exponential Smoothing (ES) models.In 2021, ACM caused 51,494 deaths (95% UI: 44,031-56,451), with an age-standardized death rate of 1.24 per 100,000 (95% UI: 1.06-1.36). DALYs reached 1,771,812 (95% UI:1,521,953-1,943,500), with an age-standardized rate of 41.81 per 100,000 (95% UI: 35.97-45.8). The burden was highest in Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and Latin America. Future projections suggest a potential stabilization or gradual decline in ACM burden, though mortality and DALYs remain high in some regions.Conclusions: ACM remains a major global health challenge, particularly in middle-aged males.Regional disparities highlight the need for targeted alcohol control policies and improved cardiovascular healthcare. Strengthened public health interventions are crucial to mitigating ACM-related mortality and disability.
Keywords: Alcoholic cardiomyopathy, Global burden of disease, Mortality, Disability-adjusted life years, Forecasting, Epidemiology
Received: 08 Apr 2025; Accepted: 18 Jun 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Zhou, Liu, Meng, Ji, Chen and Ma. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence:
Zhongpu Chen, Department of Cardiology, Zhongda Hospital, School of Medicine, Southeast University, Nanjing, China
Genshan Ma, Department of Cardiology, Zhongda Hospital, School of Medicine, Southeast University, Nanjing, China
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