ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Public Health
Sec. Health Economics
Volume 13 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1608445
Evaluating Disease Burden in Chronic Kidney Disease Screening Using a Micro-Simulation Model
Provisionally accepted
- Naval Medical University, Shanghai, China
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Introduction: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) has a high prevalence, poor prognosis, and high medical costs, and awareness of the disease is low. Therefore, in this study, we aimed to simulate and analyze the evolution of CKD burden among different groups at high risk of CKD in Shanghai, with or without screening intervention, and provide a quantifiable basis for the selection of screening intervention strategies for CKD. Methods: A micro-simulation model was constructed to analyze the evolution of CKD burden using data from CKD screening of the population in the Jing'an and Minhang Districts of Shanghai, China, from January 2015 to December 2020. SAS Statistical Software 9.4 was used to simulate and analyze the evolution of disease burden under different screening intervention strategies. Results: By 2033, screening interventions for high-risk groups with hypertension, diabetes, and an age of 65 years and older would be associated with 6250 fewer patients with end-stage renal disease. Furthermore, the number of patients with end-stage renal disease would be reduced to only 41.64% of the projected number of patients without screening intervention, leading to a general improvement in the quality of life of the population, better qualityadjusted life-years, and a reduction in the economic burden of disease. Discussion: The results of this study highlight the importance of combining the concepts of integrated prevention and treatment of chronic diseases to improve screening and intervention of CKD for people with hypertension, diabetes, and those aged 65 years and older, thereby effectively reducing the number of patients with end-stage renal disease, lowering the cost of treatment and intervention, and improving the quality of life of the population.
Keywords: Micro-simulation, screening interventions, disease burden, chronic renal insufficiency, Cost of Illness
Received: 11 Apr 2025; Accepted: 29 Aug 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Li, Ma, Liu, Xu and Duan. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence:
Ping Xu, Naval Medical University, Shanghai, China
Guang Feng Duan, Naval Medical University, Shanghai, China
Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.