ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Public Health
Sec. Public Health and Nutrition
Volume 13 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1613801
Systematic Analysis of Gout Burden among Young Adults in China from 1990 to 2021: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Provisionally accepted
- 1Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu, Sichuan Province, China
- 2Nantong Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Nantong, Jiangsu Province, China
- 3Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China
- 4Hospital of Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu, Sichuan Province, China
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Background: Gout, a disabling inflammatory arthritis, closely linked to metabolic diseases such as hyperuricemia, obesity, hypertension, and diabetes, is increasingly prevalent among young adults in China. Understanding the burden of gout and its risk factors among young adults in China is crucial for developing effective prevention and management strategies.Methods: We analyzed data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021) on gout prevalence, incidence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) among young adults (individuals aged 15-39 years) in China from 1990 to 2021. Joinpoint regression and the AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model were used to assess trends and predict future burden. Summary exposure values (SEVs) were used to evaluate risk factors.Results: The study found that the burden of gout among young adults in China is significantly higher than the global average and shows a continuous upward trend. Males have a higher burden and age-standardized rates on all indicators, including prevalence, incidence, and DALYs. Joinpoint regression analysis revealed that from 1990 to 2021, the burden of gout has experienced rapid growth, stabilization, and a resurgence of acceleration since 2019. ARIMA model projects different epidemiological trends for gout across 2022-2036, with age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) and age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) declining while age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) gradually rise. Gender-specific disparities persist. Females demonstrate a predictable rise in ASPR, ASIR and ASDR. Despite males facing higher baseline burdens and accelerating ASDR growth, their ASPR and ASIR exhibit downward trends. A significant rise in gout risk factors among Chinese aged 15-39 from 1990 to 2021 highlights the need to face the upcoming gout burden and carry out targeted measures for this population.Conclusions: The rising burden of gout among young Chinese adults demands immediate gender- and age-specific public health action. Targeted interventions focusing on modifiable risk factors such as dietary habits and lifestyle are crucial to reduce the impact of gout on young adults.
Keywords: Gout, young adults, Global burden of disease, China, ARIMA model, Risk factors
Received: 17 Apr 2025; Accepted: 21 May 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Zhong, Li, Hu, Tao, Hao, Li, Zeng, Zhang and Hu. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Xiaoyu Hu, Hospital of Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu, Sichuan Province, China
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