ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Public Health
Sec. Public Health Policy
Volume 13 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1615521
This article is part of the Research TopicPublic Health Challenges in Post-Soviet Countries During and Beyond COVID-19, Volume IIView all 9 articles
Pre-COVID era pediatric disease incidence in Kazakhstan: regional panel data analysis of multiple disease groups (2010-2019)
Provisionally accepted- 1Buketov Karaganda State University, Karaganda, East Kazakhstan, Kazakhstan
- 2Karaganda State Medical University, Karaganda, Kazakhstan
- 3University of Insubria, Varese, Lombardia, Italy
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Background: While child morbidity in Kazakhstan is studied, existing research often prioritizes mortality or infectious diseases over non-communicable conditions. This study fills this gap by examining socioeconomic, demographic, and healthcare factors linked to respiratory diseases, asthma, and nervous system disorders among children aged 0–14 years across Kazakhstan from 2010 to 2019 highlighting regional context.Methods: Panel data from 14 regions were analyzed using linear mixed models with autoregressive covariance to address regional and temporal heterogeneity. Log-transformed incidence rates of respiratory diseases (J00-J99), asthma (J45), and nervous system diseases (G00-G99) were modeled against predictors including GRP per capita, unemployment, population density, Gini coefficient, pediatrician density, and hospital resources. Other variables with variance inflation factors ≥5 were excluded to mitigate multicollinearity.Results: Respiratory diseases showed the highest mean incidence (57,329.86 per 100,000), with significant regional variation. Aqtöbe, Atyrau, and South Kazakhstan had 12–25% lower incidence compared to Zhambyl (reference), while Pavlodar and North Kazakhstan had 35–61% higher rates. A 1% increase in population density correlated with a 1.05% decrease in respiratory disease incidence (p = 0.008), whereas unemployment was linked to a 0.41% rise (p = 0.029). Asthma incidence increased by 140% over the decade, with higher rates in regions with greater income inequality (0.26% increase per 1% rise in low-income households, p = 0.032). Nervous system disorders showed limited associations, with unemployment as the sole predictor (0.69% increase per 1% rise, p = 0.040). Temporal trends revealed declines in most diseases, but neoplasms, diabetes, and asthma increased significantly.Conclusion: The study addresses the lack of localized socioeconomic and healthcare analyses for respiratory diseases, asthma, and nervous system disorders among children, providing evidence for region-specific policy interventions. Respiratory diseases and asthma among Kazakhstani children 0-14 years had associations with the regional economic conditions, healthcare utilization, and inequality. Population density and income inequality were consistent predictors, while nervous system disorders showed fewer clear associations. Our findings show distinct regional patterns in pediatric morbidity, linking health outcomes to localized socioeconomic and healthcare conditions.
Keywords: Pediatric morbidity, Kazakhstan, Respiratory diseases, Asthma, nervous system disorders, socioeconomic determinants, Healthcare access, disparity
Received: 21 Apr 2025; Accepted: 26 May 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Smagulov, Zhamantayev, Aitkulov, Yerdessov, Nukeshtayeva, Bolatova and Kurzhunbaeva. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence:
Olzhas Zhamantayev, Karaganda State Medical University, Karaganda, Kazakhstan
Aidar Aitkulov, Buketov Karaganda State University, Karaganda, 100024, East Kazakhstan, Kazakhstan
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