Long Short-term Memory-based Forecasting of Influenza Epidemics Using Surveillance and Meteorological Data in Tokyo, Japan

Daiki Koge¹Keita Wagatsuma^2*

• ¹Division of Bioinformatics, Graduate School of Science and Technology, Niigata University, Niigata, Niigata, Japan
• ²Division of International Health (Public Health), Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences, Niigata University, Niigata, Japan, Niigata, Niigata, Japan

Background: Influenza remains a significant public health challenge worldwide, necessitating robust forecasting models to facilitate timely interventions and resource allocation. The aim of this study was to develop a long short-term memory (LSTM)-based short-term forecasting model to accurately predict weekly influenza case counts in Tokyo, Japan. Method: By using weekly time-series data on influenza incidence in Tokyo from 2000 to 2019, along with meteorological variables, we developed four distinct 2 models to evaluate the impact of the external variables of mean temperature, relative humidity, and national public holidays. After model training, we assessed the predictive performance on an independent test dataset, using mean square error (MSE), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and Pearson's correlation coefficient. Results: During the study period, 1,445,944 influenza cases were analyzed. The model incorporating all three external variables demonstrated superior predictive accuracy, with an MSE of 3,646,084, RMSE of 1,909, MAE of 849, and Pearson's correlation coefficient of 0.924. These findings underscore the substantial contribution of these external factors to improving the prediction performance. Conclusion: This study highlighted the efficacy of LSTM-based models for short-term influenza forecasting and reinforces the importance of integrating meteorological variables and national public holidays into predictive frameworks. Our optimal model provided more precise forecasts of influenza activity in Tokyo, Japan.