Addressing Alcohol-Involved Sexual Violence on College Campuses: A Collaborative System Dynamics Theory of Change

Travis Robert Moore^1,2*Joseph Alejandro^3,4Michelle Dougherty^3,4Robert W.S. Coulter^3,4,5,6Jessica G Burke^3,4Elizabeth Miller^6,7Regina Futcher^6,7Natalie Sumetsky⁸Christina F Mair^3,4,5

• ¹Department of Nutrition Interventions, Communication, and Behavior Change, Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy, Tufts University, Boston, United States
• ²Department of Community Health, School of Arts and Sciences, Tufts University, Medford, Massachusetts, United States
• ³Department of Behavioral and Community Health Sciences, Graduate School of Public Health, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States
• ⁴Center for Social Dynamics and Community Health, School of Public Health, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, United States
• ⁵Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States
• ⁶Department of Pediatrics, School of Medicine, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States
• ⁷Division of Adolescent and Young Adult Medicine, Children's Hospital of Pittsburgh, School of Medicine, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States
• ⁸Public Health Dynamics Laboratory, School of Public Health, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, United States

Introduction: Alcohol-involved sexual violence on college campuses is a complex public health challenge shaped by interacting individual, interpersonal, social, and institutional factors. This paper presents a systems science–based theory of change for addressing alcohol-involved sexual violence, developed through collaborative modeling with campus collaborators as part of the CAMPUS (Collaborative Model-building Project to Understand Sexual Violence) study. Methods: This study presents a stock-and-flow diagram (SFD) theory of change developed by a research team through the synthesis of three causal loop diagrams co-produced by three cohorts of students and practitioners across five college campuses. The SFD formalizes key feedback structures shaping alcohol use, sexual violence, and campus responses. Results: The resulting SFD models the interplay of alcohol availability, drinking culture, peer norms, and consent communication. Key reinforcing loops highlight how alcohol use, consent, rape myths, and underreporting of sexual violence incidents mutually reinforce one another. Balancing loops underscore the potential of peer support and bystander interventions to interrupt these cycles. The model identifies multiple leverage points for systems-aligned interventions, including trauma-informed services and consent education. Conclusion: This practice-based and collaborative model provides a systems theory of change to guide future simulation modeling and intervention design.