ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Public Health
Sec. Public Health Policy
Volume 13 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1622954
This article is part of the Research TopicTackling Non-Communicable Diseases and Epidemiological Transition in Low- and Middle-Income CountriesView all 6 articles
Global burden and projections of breast cancer incidence and mortality to 2050: A comprehensive analysis of GLOBOCAN data
Provisionally accepted
- 1Abu Dhabi University, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
- 2University of Pécs, Pécs, Hungary
- 3University of Debrecen, Debrecen, Hungary
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Background: Breast cancer is a leading global health challenge, exhibiting significant regional disparities in incidence, mortality, and survival outcomes. This study analysed the burden of breast cancer in 2022 and projects its future impact by 2050 using GLOBOCAN data. Methods: Incidence and mortality data for breast cancer from 2022 were analysed across continents, age group, HDI and countries categories. The Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC) from 2018-2022 was calculated to project cases and deaths for 2050. Mortality-to-Incidence Ratios (MIR) were computed to assess survival disparities. Results: In 2022, Asia accounted for the highest breast cancer incidence (985,817 cases), followed by Europe (557,532) and Northern America (306,307). Africa recorded the highest mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) of 0.510, highlighting challenges in early detection and treatment. By 2050, global breast cancer cases are projected to exceed 6 million, with Asia, experiencing the most significant rise (2.0 million cases) followed by Africa (1.118 million cases), followed by. Mortality is expected to rise proportionally, with Asia (484,468) and Africa (390,695 deaths) and bearing the largest burden. The MIR for 2050 shows marked disparities, with Africa (0.35) and Asia (0.25) remaining elevated compared to Europe (0.20) and Northern America (0.13). Conclusion: The projected rise in breast cancer incidence and mortality highlights the urgent need for region-specific interventions. Targeted strategies focusing on early detection, improved access to treatment, and reduction of modifiable risk factors are essential, particularly in transitioning economies where disparities remain stark.
Keywords: breast cancer, Global burden, Incidence, Mortality, projections
Received: 05 May 2025; Accepted: 17 Oct 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Freihat, Sipos and Kovacs. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Omar Freihat, freihat.omar@yahoo.com
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