ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Public Health
Sec. Substance Use Disorders and Behavioral Addictions
Volume 13 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1623089
This article is part of the Research TopicAdolescent Smoking, Alcohol Consumption and Psychoactive Substance Misuse in Low-Middle Income CountriesView all 6 articles
Global burden of Nasopharyngeal carcinoma attributable to alcohol use: a 1990-2021 analysis with projections to 2040
Provisionally accepted
- 1Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China
- 2The Second Affiliated Hospital of Bengbu Medical University, Bengbu, China
- 3The First Affiliated Hospital of Bengbu Medical University, Bengbu, China
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Background Nasopharyngeal carcinoma attributable to alcohol use (NPC-AU) contributes substantially to global cancer mortality and disability, yet its temporal and geographic patterns remain incompletely described.Objectives To assess the global, regional, and national burden of NPC-AU from 1990 to 2021 and project trends through 2040.Material and Methods Using GBD 2021 data, global, regional, and national age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and disability-adjusted life‑years rates (ASDR) attributable to alcohol were evaluated. Trends were quantified by average annual percentage change (AAPC) and projections were generated using Bayesian age–period–cohort models.Results From 1990 to 2021, global ASMR declined from 0.31 to 0.19 per 100,000 population (AAPC –1.66; 95% CI –1.79 to –1.52) and ASDR fell with an AAPC of –1.72 (95% CI –1.87 to –1.57). Male ASMR decreased from 0.42 to 0.27 per 100,000 (AAPC –1.60), and female ASMR from 0.21 to 0.12 per 100,000 (AAPC –2.25). High-middle SDI regions saw ASMR drop from 0.50 to 0.28 per 100,000 (AAPC –1.97), whereas low-middle SDI regions experienced an increase from 0.09 to 0.11 per 100,000 (AAPC 0.72). Regionally, East Asia’s ASMR declined at an AAPC of –2.70, Southern Latin America at –3.13, and Southeast Asia increased at 1.76. Age-specific peaks in ASMR shifted from 55–59 and 65–69 years in 1990 to 65–69 and 70–74 years in 2021. Projections forecast male ASMR of 0.35 per 100,000 (95% UI 0.03–0.67) and female ASMR of 0.02 per 100,000 (95% UI 0.00–0.04) by 2040. Conclusions and Significance Although global ASMR and ASDR for NPC-AU declined markedly from 1990 to 2021, rising burdens in lower-SDI regions, persistent male predominance, and shifting peaks to older age groups highlight the need for targeted alcohol-control policies and age-tailored screening.
Keywords: nasopharyngeal carcinoma, alcohol-attributable burden, Global burden, Mortality, Disability-adjusted life years
Received: 05 May 2025; Accepted: 07 Jul 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Lu, Yang, Dai, Wu, Wang and Kai. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Zhang Kai, The First Affiliated Hospital of Bengbu Medical University, Bengbu, China
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