ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Public Health
Sec. Infectious Diseases: Epidemiology and Prevention
Volume 13 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1626232
Analysis of the Trends and Predictions of Tuberculosis Burden in China from 1990 to 2021 Based on the GBD Database
Provisionally accepted
- 1Department of Radiotherapy, Zhongda Hospital, Southeast University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, PR China, Nanjing, China
- 2Nanjing Brain Hospital Affiliated to Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China
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China from 1990 to 2021 Based on the GBD Database Background: Tuberculosis (TB) is a major public health concern in China, exhibiting unique epidemiological traits and changing patterns. This study aims to assess the burden of TB in China from 1990 to 2021 and forecast the future. Methods: Data on TB burden indicators in China from 1990 to 2021 were collected from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. The Joinpoint Regression (JPR) model was employed to assess trends in disease burden, with calculations of the annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC). The Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model and the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model were utilized to forecast trends in the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) over the next 15 years.From 1990 to 2021, the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of TB in China showed a declining trend, decreasing by 47.17%, 78.14%, and 81.25%, respectively, while the absolute number of TB cases increased by 32.96%. In 2021, the ASIR, age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), ASMR, and agestandardized DALY rate (ASDR) of TB in China were 36.28 per 100,000 (95% CI:
Keywords: GBD database, Tuberculosis, disease burden, predictive analysis；BAPC model, BAPC model
Received: 10 May 2025; Accepted: 13 Aug 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Lu, Feng, Feng and Shen. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Jie Shen, Nanjing Brain Hospital Affiliated to Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China
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