ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Public Health
Sec. Aging and Public Health
This article is part of the Research TopicCancer Burden and Cancer Screening Strategies in AsiaView all 5 articles
Evolving landscape of the female cancers along with attributable risk factors in China from 1990 to 2021, and projections to 2040
Provisionally accepted
- 1Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, China
- 2Zibo Central Hospital, Zibo, China
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Background: Female cancers pose a significant health burden in China, and this study identified and projected epidemiological trends of these cancers. Methods: We extracted incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) data of female breast, cervical, uterine, and ovarian cancers in China from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and the age-period-cohort (APC) model were used to explore the trends, and the Bayesian APC model (BAPC) was employed to project the burden. Results: In 2021, breast cancer had the highest incidence (38.58×104) and mortality (8.81×104) cases, with the age-standardized rates of incidence (ASIR) and prevalence (ASPR) doubling from 1990 to 2021 (EAPC: 2.34 and 2.49). However, the age-standardized rates of mortality (ASMR) and DALYs (ASDR) declined slightly (EAPC: -0.62 and -0.52). Cervical cancer saw a slight increase in ASIR (EAPC: 0.88), a substantial increase in ASPR (EAPC: 2.50), but decreases in ASMR and ASDR (EAPC: -1.05 and -1.07). Uterine and ovarian cancers had slight ASPR increases and moderate ASMR/ASDR declines. High red meat consumption was the leading risk factor for breast cancer, and unsafe sex practices accounted for nearly all cervical cancer DALYs. High BMI contributed to a growing proportion of breast, uterine, and ovarian cancers. Projections indicated increasing burdens for breast, uterine, and ovarian cancers by 2040, with cervical cancer declining. Conclusions: The female cancers burden in China has been rising and will continue to do so. Targeted prevention and intervention strategies are crucial.
Keywords: female cancers, China, Trends, Risk factors, projections
Received: 15 May 2025; Accepted: 27 Oct 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Han, Chen, Song, Li, Zhang and Yang. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence: Tongchao Zhang, zhangtongchao@email.sdu.edu.cn
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